N Korea is blowing a unique window of opportunity: a progressive SK prez, Moon Jae-In, overlapping with deal-craving Trump. It’s rare that a SK gov’t is this enthusiastic for NK outreach. It’s even rarer that a POTUS wants to meet as Trump does. And it’s unique that these /1
two factors overlap: for a brief moment, both the SK and US leaderships are willing to break with the old deterrence pattern for a new way. This is fragile, as Moon has done little to groom a transpartisan consensus for engagement in SK, nor has Trump rallied any kind of US /2
domestic coalition for his NK diplomacy. If the SK right wins the parliamentary election next year, and/or if Trump loses re-election or is pushed out, this favorable alignment in NK’s primary opponents cracks. Alteratives/successors to Trump and Moon will almost certainly be /3
more hawkish. So why are the NKs dragging their feet so much? They’ll get no better alignment of external politics than this. Yet by playing so hard to get in the face of an unprecedented two dovish presidents, they’re confirming hawks’ prejudices. A few years from now, hawks /4
will use contemporary NK rejectionism in the face of two pro-engagement presidents to say that NK is unwilling to seriously negotiate, under even the most generous circumstances. Therefore there’s no alternative but to punish NK through sanctions and containment. I’d say that /5
most of the NK analyst community is already at least mildly hawkish. And NK’s behavior in 2017-18 is confirming that. ...This thread was motivated by my speaking at a SK government ‘peace economy’ event today (pic). The enthusiasm here for cooperation with NK is so high. And /6 
I’ve seen this a lot since Moon became POTROK, at similar events at places like the Jeju Peace Institute. There is so much goodwill from this ROK administration to change the relationship. Yet the NKs have been so cold to ROK outreach. I can’t help but thinking they’re missing /7
a huge opportunity, bc most of the NK conferences I’ve been to in SK are about military security, nukes, NK gangsterism, China’s role in sanctions, and so on. The tone now is very different, and it won’t last if Kim doesn’t give Moon and Trump at least something meaningful. END
