Thread by @HoarseWisperer

For folks who like to poll watch, I’d recommend Real Clear Politics.

Their national average of all polls is more demonstrative of where the race stands than individual polls with high margins of error.

1/
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…

Per RCP, the race still stands at:

- Biden leading
- Warren pulling to second
- Sanders going sideways in third
- Harris and Buttigieg trailing the front runners in 4th and 5th

2/

To me, the key dynamics to watch:

1) Whether Biden or Sanders can demonstrate any momentum.

As of now, neither has gained ground since announcing

2) Whether Warren’s rise plateaus or starts to reverse

I suspect it will, at minimum, slow down.

3/

3) Whether anyone below the top three can generate sustained momentum over the next month

I suspect Mayor Pete will climb into a legitimate stand-alone 4th.

4) Realignment of support as others drop out.

Not much will change when the bottom ten drop out but...

4/

...when candidates when 3+% start dropping, there will be some musical chairs and that will give the impression of momentum.

Klobuchar dropping out would favor Biden but she’s likely to be in the race for awhile.

5/

A dropout by almost any of the other candidates would likely, at least to some degree, favor candidates *other than* Biden and Sanders.

That’s how I see it as of today anyway.

I still think the race is more dynamic than people like Robert Reich think.

6/

If forced to choose, I’d bet on the bottom seventeen over the top three.

Consolidation is going to change the newscycle. The media loves a horse race. Candidates who can’t get a sniff today can easily be tomorrow’s ascendant darlings with just a few changes in the race.

7/7