Thread by @greg06897

1) it’s only 10 am but the polling shenanigans are already incredible. First we have a new CNN poll that was so badly manipulated that the Biden numbers basically discredit the poll on it’s own

2) I’m not sure if the poll was tailored to help Biden or Klobuchar, but the results are embarrassing for CNN.

first the top line numbers:

Biden: 34
warren: 19
Bernie:16

3) they then give a bunch of different demo breakdowns of the numbers but as far as I could find, don’t do an age breakdown. However they do age breakdowns on other surveyed questions and those give the game away

4) But this CNN poll of a “whopping“ 424 voters, has Bernie and Warren each within one point of where they were in the last CNN poll, but Biden Up.... 10 POINTS in a month and a half during a time no other pollster has a Biden going up at all, let alone up 10 POINTS

5) Several post debate polls have shown that Biden had one of the worst rated performances of anyone on the debate stage. What does CNN say? He did the second best and Warren was far and away the best.

6) oh and for that question, only 325 people were polled.
Who is the best candidate in health care and the climate? According to this poll, it’s...... Joe Biden

7) putting aside the fact the poll has a margin of error of just under 6%. Some of weighting shenanigans are revealed in later questions where they do show age breakdowns.

8) actually no, they do show age breakdowns for the overall poll and it’s very telling. Who leads the race in their own poll among people under 50? Why it’s Bernie Sanders.

bernie: 26%
Biden: 23%
Warren: 21%

9) Who leads with people 50-64?

doesn't say because they didn’t poll enough people to get results

10) Now you might be thinking why would practically taking out the 50-64 age demo hurt Bernie and help Biden? In the same picture above CNN shows that they used under 45 and over 45 as the break even point meaning each was equally weighted.

11) By essentially taking out 45-64 year olds, it’s also pretty clear that there’s little change from 18-49 as there is 18-45 meaning there’s very few people polled 45-50 as well, they are basically weighting 65 and over as the same as 45 and under.

12) On top of that one only has to look at the age breakdown of Bernie vs Trump Hess to head to see something is very wrong with their 35-50 numbers.

13) Somehow Bernie is killing Trump amongst 18-34 year olds and is up 10 points with people over 65 and tied with people aged 50 to 64, yet losing by 6 points with people aged 35-49? I’m calling bull.

14) Oh and remember those debate numbers that had Warren far and away performing best followed by Biden? Let’s look at the race and age breakdowns of that. What’s that, it was essentially only white people over 65.....

15) Not to be outdone Real Clear Politics saw these results and said, “No way we are taking Quinnipiac out of our average, let’s have 7 polls in our average with Quinnipiac much older than the other polls and still not add Reuters“

16) Some people might think it makes more sense to have 5 polls, or even 6 if you add Reuters, in the average and have them all be post debate polls. But remember Warren’s two best polls by far are pre-debate and without them she’d lose about 3 entire points and be at 20%

17) and if you add in Reuters she’d be at 19.5%. Meanwhile if you did the same, Bernie would be at 17.7%.

Meaning Warren would be up less than 2% points on Bernie in their average instead of how they currently have it with Warren up almost 7%.

18) last time I checked 7-2=5, so Real Clear’s shenanigans are currently elevating Warren an extra 5% over Bernie and making her look like she’s way ahead of Bernie when she isn’t at all

19) I thought CNN maybe Pulled this stunt to help Klobuchar but the fact that Facebook now has it as the number story in politics tells me it was a coordinated effort for Biden.

20) And YouGov just released their new weekly poll and it has results more in line with what it normally shows in contrast to last week when they skewed the hell out of their numbers to claim Warren was the frontrunner.

Warren: down 6
Biden: down 1
Bernie: up 3

But wait....

21) Once again Real Clear Politics is showing different results from everyone else including 538, and the YouGov poll itself.

the results are as seen in both pics below and have

Biden 24%
warren 21%
Bernie 15%

22) Meanwhile Real Clear Politics is showing a subset of the poll which elevates Warren as they show

Biden 24%
Warren 23%
Bernie 16%

instead of being 3 points below Biden and 6 points ahead of Bernie, they have her only 1 point behind Biden and up 7 points on Bernie

23) Even so, this is a huge drop in just a week for Warren, due to YouGov putting out a bogus poll even for them last week a poll that was only supported by an even more bogus Q poll. And speaking of that Q poll. With yougov updated, it now truly has no business in the average

24) The Real Clear average now still has 7 polls in their average which is a bunch for them, it still doesn’t have Reuters, but it also has 6 post debate polls and one pre debate. And that one pre-debate just happens to be the one with Warren at 30%. They refuse to drop it

25) There is literally no justification for Real Clear keeping a pre debate poll that is much older than all the other polls, while having more polls in their average than usual, and ignoring a more recent poll..... except to help Warren out and hurt Bernie. its The 11% poll