Deja vu in the realm of #Brexit Extensiondom.. France digging its heels in while Germany and most other EU countries support idea of granting the 3 month extension mooted in the PMs extension request letter /1
France was the ‚hardliner‘ when it came to the extension back in April too. But then Macron was contesting European parliamentary elections against his eurosceptic rival, Marine Le Pen. He was using the Brexit extension to make a political point back home in France /2
Now too Macron is keen to flex his Mr Europe muscles. He thinks by granting only the shortest of extensions, the EU will help focus MPs minds, encouraging them to ratify the newly negotiated #Brexit deal that the majority gave a nod to on Monday night /3
France worries a longer extension could lead to more UK indecisiveness. Or a general election which may prove inconclusive on #Brexit .Macron doesn’t want EU leaders to have to focus on Brexit any more, but rather to get on with reforming EU for countries staying in the bloc /4
BUT will Macron really veto the 3month extension Germany and others favour? He has already angered a number in the EU lately by putting his foot down on widening the bloc to include 2 new member states. If he refuses to agree with EU majority over the new #Brexit extension../5
Then Macron will be using up exactly the kind of good will/openness to consensus decision-making he needs if wants to make headway on his EU reform agenda. Is the #Brexit extension issue really worth it to him? /6
It could be that he’s using the days BEFORE extension decision is announced to stamp his feet (via press statements by his Europe minister as monsieur le president is on a working trip to an island in the Indian Ocean) that 1) UK should not take #Brexit extensions for granted /7
2) Extension time shld be used for something concrete. Preferably in EU view: to get #Brexit deal ratified. There is EU debate (like last time) around attaching specific conditions to the extension like: the UK will only get extension if holds gen election/tries to ratify BUT /8
While that is easy to say for EU politicians, it’s challenging to actually do. Would look like Brussels meddling in domestic politics of sovereign EU member country .. Messy. So it’s unlikely to be a take it or leave it condition to the extension. /9
EU extension decision likely to be announced tomorrow. Either in writing (this is the preference of #Brexit -fatigued EU leaders) OR if France remains opposed to 3month extension, there could be an emergency summit in Brussels on Monday so leaders reach agreement face-to-face /10
NB The EU majority preference for 3mth extension is because countries like Germany think a) it stops having to agonise over 2 extensions: a short one to see if #Brexit deal can be ratified and if not, another another extension to allow UK to hold elex/a referendum /11
And b) EU thinks opting for extension time asked for by UK (the 3 months mentioned in PMs request letter and Benn Act) is most neutral thing Brussels can do in UKs heated political climate. EU does not want to be dragged into UK political quagmire here. Germany for example /12
Worries that offering more than 3 months could be viewed in UK as ‘EU trying to keep the UK in as long as possible’ while opting for a shorter time than 3 months could be viewed as trying to force MPs hands over the #Brexit deal or even as EU throwing UK out! So.. /13
Watching ongoing divisions in Parliament: inside Tory party over elections vs getting #Brexit deal ratified and splits in Labour over whether to back calling an election, EU figures mutter in private that they half expect to be asked for yet another extension come January /15
