Thread by @rp_griffin

*New Blog Post*

While the conversation around the Democratic Primary is currently focused on those candidates' electability, there’s another candidate with an electability challenge:
President Donald Trump.

Let's walk through the key takeaways. 1/N

voterstudygroup.org/blog/early-sig…

1) One of the most durable features of Trump’s presidency is his unpopularity. His approval/ favorability # is stable but also low given the economy. Worse, his support is relatively "soft". His very unfavorable # is about twice as large as his very favorable # (49% v. 25%). 2/N

We see this in key voting groups. Majorities of Obama-Clinton(92%), Romney-Clinton (70%), and Obama-Other (70%) voters have a v. unfavorable view.

Only among Romney-Trump voters do a majority (67%) have a v. favorable view - a view shared by just 39% of Obama-Trump voters. 3/N

Notably, the overwhelming majority (85%) of Americans have not changed their mind about Trump since 2016. One of the few exceptions is Obama-Trump voters. In Nov. 2016, 85% held a favorable view of the president — 19 percentage points higher than in 2019 (66%). 4/N

2) Another warning sign for Trump: the 2018 midterms.

Among those same voting groups, Rep-leaning groups were more likely to defect than their Dem counterparts. 37% of Obama-Trump voters voted for a Dem compared to just 18% of Romney-Clinton who voted for a Rep. 5/N

3) Last warning sign: The same defections we saw in '18 are mirrored in early vote intentions for '20.

Dem: 48%
Uncertain & Disapprove Trump: 6%
Uncertain & Approve Trump: 4%
Trump: 36%
Would not vote: 5%

6/N

In those same voting groups, we see a higher probability of 2020 defection among Rep-leaning groups.

Rep-leaning groups are more likely to say they will vote for a democrat or are uncertain and disapprove of Trump than their Dem counterparts are to do the opposite. 7/N

An overwhelming majority of Romney-Clinton voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate (81%) or were uncertain disapprovers (12 percent). By contrast, just 62% of Obama-Trump voters said they would vote for Trump and 9% were uncertain approvers. 8/N

About 1-in-4 Obama-Trump voters said they would vote for a Dem candidate (16%) or were uncertain disapprovers (8%). While a majority of them may now feel at home within the Rep party, these results suggest that a substantial portion may still be regular supporters of Dems. 9/N

Why break up uncertain voters like this? Voters today seem to be more decisive/predictable. Using panel data from a year before '12, this approach correctly predicted 88% of congressional votes and 90% of presidential votes. A similar '18 analysis predicted 93% of the votes. 10/N

That said, early data should be considered with caution. A wide variety of factors, including the identity of the Democratic nominee, are still in flux. However, Trump’s historic unpopularity, losses in '18, and early data on '20 suggest he faces significant headwinds. 11/N

If you want to stay up-to-date on data releases and future reports, make sure to sign up for our mailing list! 12/12

voterstudygroup.org

BONUS ANALYSIS:
4) Trump is also doing notably worse in his matchups today than Obama was at a similar point in the 2012 cycle.

h/t to @NathanKalmoe for making me regret not doing this analysis in the post.

https://twitter.com/rp_griffin/status/1187423279809740800