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Friendly reminder:
That "white evangelical share of the national vote" is coming from the Exit Polls and is not *IN ANY WAY* credible. 1/N
That "white evangelical share of the national vote" is coming from the Exit Polls and is not *IN ANY WAY* credible. 1/N
This number doesn't pass any kind of logic check.
For a group to increase or maintain it's share of the electorate as it shrinks means that the relative turnout of the group needs to go up every single year.
How much? A patently unbelievable amount. 2/N
For a group to increase or maintain it's share of the electorate as it shrinks means that the relative turnout of the group needs to go up every single year.
How much? A patently unbelievable amount. 2/N
Go ahead and do the math yourself.
For WEP to have been 23% of the voting age population and 23% of the electorate in '04 means their turnout must have been roughly equal to the other 77% of people. VAP turnout was about 55% in '04, so let's use that as a starting place. 3/N
For WEP to have been 23% of the voting age population and 23% of the electorate in '04 means their turnout must have been roughly equal to the other 77% of people. VAP turnout was about 55% in '04, so let's use that as a starting place. 3/N
From '04 -> '18 the WEP shrank 8-points among the voting age population. Let's assume "other" turnout stayed the same (not accurate, but close enough for an example). What would WEP turnout need to be in '18 in order to make up 26% of the electorate?
An impossible 110%.
4/N
An impossible 110%.
4/N
Feel free to use different starting places and different assumptions. You may not get an impossible number, but will almost certainly get a ridiculous one. 5/5
*Bonus tweet*
What does an actual demographic decline look like? Check out estimates for the share of white, noncollege in the electorate from my latest States of Change report.
Year over year, it drops.
americanprogress.org/issues/democra…
What does an actual demographic decline look like? Check out estimates for the share of white, noncollege in the electorate from my latest States of Change report.
Year over year, it drops.
americanprogress.org/issues/democra…
