That "white evangelical share of the national vote" is coming from the Exit Polls and is not *IN ANY WAY* credible. 1/N
For a group to increase or maintain it's share of the electorate as it shrinks means that the relative turnout of the group needs to go up every single year.
How much? A patently unbelievable amount. 2/N
For WEP to have been 23% of the voting age population and 23% of the electorate in '04 means their turnout must have been roughly equal to the other 77% of people. VAP turnout was about 55% in '04, so let's use that as a starting place. 3/N
An impossible 110%.
What does an actual demographic decline look like? Check out estimates for the share of white, noncollege in the electorate from my latest States of Change report.
Year over year, it drops.