Spoiler: It’s cynical. But not stupid.
OK, it looks stupid: Trump is doubling down on the very issues that resulted in Democrats winning the House in 2018 & every Midwest race.⤵️
(See👇 )
I'll argue here that if he tries to move to the center—if he tries to moderate his views and tamp down the hateful rhetoric—he’ll lose more than he’ll gain.
People who've spent two years shocked and outraged won't suddenly become Trump supporters if he suddenly stops insulting people and stops fascist-style chants.
Nobody would believe him if he tried to act like a normal candidate, and his fans would stop seeing him as "genuine."
If he stopped outrageously defying rules, they'd feel disappointed. The excitement level at his rallies would drop.
He can't do both: He can't appeal to moderates and stir his base to euphoria and rage.
He may have only 42% approval overall⤵️ but he has an iron grip on the GOP.
The GOP controls the Senate and lots of states.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
This means things will get a lot worse. Expect lots more:
💠rule and norm breaking,
💠fascist-style chanting at his rallies,
💠cruel policies, etc.
People who are spinning with outrage, can't focus.
That’s partly why he needs to keep you outraged. It makes you a less effective adversary. Plus your outrage feeds the excitement at his rallies. It's a self-feeding loop.
It is easier to steal an election Putin style: by undermining truth and wearing people out. It’s the more modern and efficient way.
But—as in 2018—a Democratic win of more than 8 points will be enough to offset the inevitable cheating . . . IF enough people are active and involved.
For what you can do, see: terikanefield-blog.com/things-to-do/
See:
By attacking Omar, Trump is cynically calculating that enough people secretly distrust and fear Muslims so they'll prefer him.
From @TimothyDSnyder, a Putin methods is to persuade people that all politicians are liars and cheaters.
It's cynical, but effective.
If enough people believe the Dems are as bad as the GOP, they won't vote. Why bother? It won't matter who wins.
With modern technology, doctored videos can be breathtakingly realistic and believable.
The Internet allows for lies to be rapidly disseminated.
Make no mistake: Most of them know he’s lying. See my Slate article⤵️
slate.com/news-and-polit…
There are some true believers who believe whatever Fox tells them. Most of them understand the game.
That's why I say Trump has a better chance if he continues with the polarizing, fascist style, fear-mongering tactics— even though they caused the GOP to lose in 2018.
As I was writing this thread, this popped up in my feed⤵️
…
Are you ready for things to get worse?
End/
Also, think how much better we understand his tactics — and Russian tactics — than we did in 2016. The best way to prepare is to understand what's coming.
How about these unvarnished truths:
People spreading doom and undermining confidence (It's all over! Democracy is dead!) are helping Trump and Putin.
People pitting Democrats against each other are helping Trump.
I can't possibly know what percentage are duped, and what percentage are the dupers (I guess "duper" is now a word).
I should have been lawyerly (avoid absolutes) and said, "many" instead of "most." 😉