Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

A little context on what Iran's most recent steps with regard to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the Iran Nuclear Deal. And let's be clear: Iran is doing this because Trump quit the deal and has reimposed sanctions on Iran. 1/13

One bit of context that is getting lost is that the Iranians have been very deliberate about enumerating each of the actions taken since May as a specific and reversible "step" designed to elicit the sanctions relief that Iran received in exchange for agreeing to the JCPOA. 2/13

@HassanRouhani announced the first step in May -- Iran would "stop selling our enriched uranium and heavy water deposits." Iran then stopped down-blending LEU and announced a four-fold increase in the pace of enrichment to breach the 300 kg LEU limit by July. 3/13

Rouhani also warned that, in 60 days, Iran would take a second set of steps "regarding the level of enrichment and Arak Heavy Water Reactor if we don’t get the desired results." Narrator voice: Iran did not get the desired results. 4/13

The second step happened In July -- Iran began enriching uranium to ~4.5%, above the 3.67% limit established in the JCPOA. Happily, however, according to the @iaeaorg as of August, Iran "has not pursued the construction of the [Arak reactor] based on its original design." 5/13

Rouhani announced Step 3 in September: Iran would "abandon all the commitments that were in place regarding research and development" of centrifuges. That's probably why we got the video of the new 30 machine IR-6 cascade. 6/13

And that brings us to the fourth step: "Gas will be injected into centrifuges at Fordow," @HassanRouhani said, "as part of part of our fourth step to reduce our nuclear commitments to the deal." Under the JCPOA, no nuclear material was permitted at Fordow. 7/13

The good news is that, contrary to my worst fears, Iran is only feeding the UF6 into cascades that had been fed previously with UF6. That means the pristine cascades for stable isotope separation have not been contaminated. 8/13

https://twitter.com/Hannahkaviani/status/1192121581511880705

The point of all these steps is to pressure the United States and Europe to lift sanctions. Rouhani has repeatedly made sanctions relief a condition of Iran's return to compliance with the JCPOA and a resumption of talks on new measures. 9/13
reuters.com/article/us-ira…

One closing thought: These steps are not a resumption of Iran's nuclear weapons program. Iran has announced each step publicly and allowed the @iaeaorg to continue monitoring in Iran. These steps reflect a government that is trying to restore the JCPOA, not kill it. 10/13

If Iran does resume its nuclear weapons program, Tehran is not going to send a press release or invite the @iaeaorg. If Tehran gives up on diplomacy, it is likely to try to"sneak out" using a newly constructed a covert facility. We really should be focused on that problem. 11/13

As we have learned from North Korea, finding covert enrichment facilities is really, really tough. The US IC did not determine that the plant at Kangson was an enrichment facility until ~2010 -- several years after it began operating. 12/13
middlebury.edu/institute/news…

We tried it @AmbJohnBolton's way in North Korea, ditching a deal for more pressure. The result: Kim Jong Un now has ICBMs that can drop H-bombs anywhere in the US. If you like a nuclear-armed North Korea, you are going to love walking away from the Iran nuclear deal. 13/13