Thread by @themarketswork

1) Brennan today on Iran.

Bombastic rhetoric against Iran. Need to be smarter, more sophisticated, more strategic.

Worth reminding is the situation Iran found itself facing prior to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – aka the Iranian Nuclear Deal.
state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/i…

2) On February 9, 2010, Iran began the process of producing 20 percent enriched uranium.

This was a crucial step.
nytimes.com/2010/03/09/sci…

3) In response, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1929 on June 9, 2010.
un.org/sc/suborg/en/s…

4) The Resolution significantly expanded sanctions against Iran – tightening proliferation-related sanctions, banning Iran from carrying out nuclear-capable ballistic missile tests, and imposing an arms embargo on the transfer of major weapons systems to Iran.

5) The resolution contained the following language:

Iran shall not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using ballistic missile technology.

6)On 6-24-10, Congress adopted the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act.

The Act tightened U.S. sanctions against firms investing in Iran’s energy sector and imposed new sanctions on companies selling refined petroleum to Iran.
treasury.gov/resource-cente…

7) The EU followed suit on 6-26-10, agreeing to further sanctions against Iran.
europa.eu/rapid/press-re…

8) On May 8, 2011, Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant began operations and successfully achieved a sustained chain reaction two days later.
nationalreview.com/corner/iran-go…

9) On June 8, 2011, Iran announced intentions to triple the rate of 20 percent-enriched uranium production using more-advanced centrifuge designs.
nytimes.com/2011/06/09/wor…

10) On December 31, 2011, Congress passed legislation (see: Section 1245) allowing the United States to sanction foreign banks if they continued to process transactions with the Central Bank of Iran.
gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW…

11) On January 23, 2012, the EU imposed a phased ban on oil purchases from Iran – with a total halt on EU importations of Iranian oil on July 1, 2012.
nytimes.com/2012/01/24/wor…

12) On February 15, 2012, Iran announced a number of nuclear advances, including new centrifuges allowing for faster Uranium enrichment.
reuters.com/article/us-ira…

13) You can see the back and forth being played by Iran during this period. These are familiar tactics and should have surprised no one.

But here’s the thing.

Those sanctions were rapidly taking their toll. The Iranian economy was coming under serious pressure.

14) Iran’s GDP contracted by 6.6% in 2012.

The official unemployment rate jumped to 14% in the Spring of 2012.

Ultimately, Iran’s GDP shrank by 9% between March 2012 and March 2014.
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2015/may/…

15) Iran’s economy was later estimated to be 15%-20% smaller than it would have been without the 2011/2012 round of sanctions.

U.S. Treasury said sanctions cost Iran $160 billion between 2012-2015.

More than $120 billion in Iranian reserves held abroad were inaccessible.

16) As a result, Iran’s currency, the rial, utterly collapsed:

"In the first ten months of 2012, the Iranian currency, the rial, lost more than 80% of its exchange value. In a single day, on October 1, 2012, it dropped by 15%."
gatestoneinstitute.org/3597/iran-rial…

17) The collapse of the rial caused inflation to spike from an already uncomfortable 20.6% in 2011 to 27.4% in 2012.

Inflation in Iran would peak at 39.3% in 2013.

Iran was under enormous economic pressure.
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2015/may/…

18) On August 30, 2012, the IAEA reported that Iran increased the number of centrifuges installed at the Fordow enrichment plant and was continuing to produce uranium enriched to 20 percent in excess of its needs for the Tehran Research Reactor.
cbsnews.com/news/iaea-repo…

19) The step from 20 percent enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium is actually rather small.
foreignpolicy.com/2012/01/11/the…

20) Article:

If Iran decides to produce weapons-grade uranium from 20% enriched uranium, it has already technically undertaken 90 percent of the enrichment effort required.

Using 20% enriched uranium as a feed, 250 kg can be turned to weapons-grade material in a month’s time.

21) Iran began 20 percent enriched uranium production in early 2010.

By late 2012 Iran had produced enough 20 percent enriched uranium to produce weapons grade uranium in roughly one month.

In other words, Iran already had weapons grade uranium capability in 2012.

22) Iran’s problem was lack of a delivery system – a medium or long-range ballistic missile.

Iran’s 2012 ballistic missile capability was outlined in a December 6, 2012 Congressional Report, Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs.
fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R…

23) Report:

It is increasingly uncertain whether Iran will be able to achieve ICBM capability by 2015.

Iran has found it increasingly difficult to acquire certain critical components and materials because of sanctions.

24) Sanctions had severely impaired Iran’s ballistic missile program – to the point that medium-range ballistic missile production was severely limited.

ICBM’s were simply not attainable.

25) In late 2012 Iran found itself in the following situation:

Iran had achieved 20 percent-enriched uranium production.

Stockpiles were now sufficient to produce weapons-grade uranium.

Iran was facing intense International pressure regarding its nuclear ambitions.

26) The Iranian economy was on the verge of collapse.

Iran’s ballistic missile technology was lagging, underfunded and component constrained due to sanctions.

Sanctions were costing Iran tens of billions each year.

Iran had no access to significant overseas cash reserves.

27) On June 14, 2013, Hassan Rouhani was elected president of Iran.

Rouhani was a former nuclear negotiator.

Three days after his inauguration, Rouhani called for the resumption of negotiations with China, France, Germany, Russia the United Kingdom, and the United Sates.

28) On September 27, 2013, Obama personally called Rouhani – marking the highest level contact between the U.S. and Iran since 1979.

Talks began in October 2013 in Geneva.

29) On November 23, 2013, Obama announced the first round of sanction relief for Iran.

Congress had been pushing for further TIGHTENING of sanctions in front of negotiations.

Obama’s sanction relief was significant.

30) $3 billion in cash, plus another $16-17 billion [in gold, petrochemical and automotive sanction relief], totaling $20 billion in sanctions relief giving a staggering 25 percent boost to Iran’s total foreign exchange reserves.
defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/the-…

31) The announcement by Obama translated to a flood of Trade Delegations visiting Iran – including ten in the first two weeks of January 2014.

Iran’s economy began to recover almost immediately. Iran’s GDP grew 3% in 2014. Inflation fell from 39% to 17%.
defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/with…

32) As the Iranian economy began growing again so did Iran’s negotiating power.

On July 14, 2015, the US, Russia, China, UK, France & Germany reached an agreement with Iran.

The JCPOA lifted all economic sanctions and allowed Iran to access $120 billion in reserves held abroad.

33) JCPOA contained Sunset Clauses:

Critical nuclear, arms, and ballistic missile restrictions disappear over 5-15 year period.

Iran must simply abide by the agreement to emerge as a threshold nuclear power with an industrial-size enrichment program.
defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dubo…

34) The JCPOA’s Key Requirements noted the following:

"For eight years the ballistic missile restrictions will remain in place."

This assertion was repeatedly put forth by the Obama Administration.

But several notable changes were made to the language on ballistic missiles.

35) Buried deep within the JCPOA, on page 99 resides the actual language:

Iran is Called Upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles Designed to be Capable of delivering nuclear weapons,

Called upon. Designed to be capable.

36) Note the crucial differences versus the original language contained within UN Resolution 1929:

"Iran shall not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons."

37) Since the JCPOA went into effect, Iran has worked diligently to bolster its ballistic missile capabilities.

Since the conclusion of the JCPOA, Iran has launched as many as 23 ballistic missiles.
defenddemocracy.org/content/upload…

38) On August 22, 2017, Iran’s atomic chief Ali Akbar Salehi shocked the International Community by stating that Iran needs only five days to ramp its uranium enrichment back up to 20 percent.apnews.com/aec3c773d37a47…

39) At the time of JCPOA, the New York Times summed the situation perfectly:

"Mr. Kerry described an Iranian capability that had been neutralized; the Iranians described a nuclear capability that had been preserved."

nytimes.com/2015/07/16/wor…

40) Iran had taken its Nuclear Program to the limit of that allowed by Int'l bodies.

It's economy was in tatters.

Iran’s missile technology lagged far behind.

Iran negotiated with willing counterpart in Obama Admin & emerged with Nuclear Program slowed–but essentially intact.

41) In return, Iran was given access to $120 bil cash and flood of foreign inv.

Iran could rebuild its economy and focus on what it lacked.

A reliable nuclear weapons delivery system.

Almost seems intentional...

Brennan: Smarter, more sophisticated, more strategic…

/End

Obama, the Iran Nuclear Deal & President Trump.
An article version of Iran Nuclear Deal thread - w/updates.
themarketswork.com/2018/07/26/oba…