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"How to extend causal inferences from a RTC to
a target population?" I am retweeting this thread since many readers ask this question, and many know of the comprehensive solution described in ucla.in/2wbH488 and in ucla.in/2Jc1kdD
using graphical models. 1/2
I was surprised therefore to read Miguel's proposal to recast the whole question in the opaque language of PO, where assumptions are so far removed from scientific understanding. A face-to-face comparison of the two approaches is given here: ucla.in/2L6yTzE
#Bookofwhy.
The thread itself, including Miguel's proposal, can be found here
#Bookofwhy
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/ I am retweeting, because the question: "Compare the PO vs. DAG approaches on applied, 'real-life' data" comes up once a week. Here it is: Take any applied paper labeled "PO" and re-label it "DAG" after adding to it three tiny ingredients: (1) Show how the modeling assumptions
2/ emerge organically from our scientific understanding of the problem, (2) Show if there is anything we can do if it doesn't thus emerge, and (3) test whether those assumptions are compatible with the available data. Once added, Bingo! We have an "applied DAG" approach,
3/3 demonstrated on "real life" data, that can be compared to the "applied PO approach" or "applied quasi-experimental approach" on all counts, especially on: (1) transparency, (2) Power, and (3) Testability. #Bookofwhy
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/3 This is an excellent paper, that every regression analyst should read. Primarily, to appreciate how problems that have lingered in decades of confusion can be untangled today using CI tools. What I learned from it was that the "suppressor surprise" is surprising even when
2/3 cast in a purely predictive context: "How can adding a second lousy predictor make the first a better predictor?" Evidently, what people expect from predictors clashes with the logic of regression slopes. The explanation I offered here ucla.in/2N8mBMg (Section 3)
3/3 shows how the phenomenon comes about, but the reason for the clash is still puzzling: What exactly do people expect from predictors, and why? #Bookofwhy
Read 6 tweets
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/ Hating to insult or disappoint any of my followers, I was seriously considering your suggestion to create a new twitter handle. But one word you said made me change my mind: "uninformed". I have been reading, writing and researching the Middle East for the past 83 years. I was
2/ there when Azam Pasha declared (Oct. 11, 1947) "a war of extermination and momentous massacre" on a nation of refugees of which I was a son. And I was here at UCLA (2014) when BDS's Omar Barghouti re-denied my people right to self determination: ucla.in/2SxjgWH. A new
3/ twitter handle will give people of your persuasion the illusion that it is impossible for an "informed" person to disagree with their bubble of self righteousness and that "informed" people must be blind to the genocidal aims of BDS and its spokeswomen Rashida and Ilhan.
Read 4 tweets

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Marc Owen Jones
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CAVEAT: The stories I tell are factions; a mixture of facts & fiction. What is fact/fiction is only known to me. Names & incidences do not represent actual persons/experiences.
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@Hejeoma
#Thread 1. My people make una no vex about the gist I promised to drop, the damn thing is too long & too explicit. I have been working with my team of directors at 'HBO' to edit & re-shoot. lol I go do am like 'Game of thrones' & drop it in episodes cos all cant fit in 25 extra
2. tweets as given by twitter. Episode 1:
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KNOW YOUR PAYMENT CARD DETAILS - and keep them safe from fraudsters and scammers.

A #Thread

Cc @yinkanubi

#BeWare #Beaware
Your payment card - debit, credit or prepaid - contains loads of information.

Two types mainly:
Those that can be read electronically
Those that can be read physically

Let's focus on the easiest and most vulnerable - those that can be read physically.
Your payment card has:
Bank name
PAN - Primary Account Number
Cardholder name
Expiry Date
Card brand
CVV - Card Verification Value

A combination of these data are used to consummate financial transactions and therefore need to be protected.
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@VictoryOlaleye
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