Thread by @StaciePettyjohn

Long thread on wargaming:

This is an important piece written by @edmcgrady, one of the most thoughtful & experienced wargamers, in @WarOnTheRocks that anyone interested in wargaming should read
warontherocks.com/2019/11/gettin…

Ed gets a lot of things right: that wargames are widely misunderstood; that they have limitations; they are “unrepeatable, chaotic, vague, & messy events” & do not provide precise quantitative answers

One area in which we are in violent agreement is that wargames “are about people, not technology”

But I strongly believe that wargames can be more than simply “stories” & can be used to analyze or evaluate ideas or concepts in which human decision making is central.

All methods have limitations, which is why multi-method approaches are the best. Statistical analysis identifies correlations, which are not causation. Qualitative case studies can identify causal mechanisms, but lack generalizability

Wargames involve real people making decisions, which is their strength. Most other methods try to simulate human decision making but don’t do a great job of it

There are a number of political scientists using games to gather data for causal inference, including @JackieGSchneid, @reidpauly’s @Journal_IS article, @eriklg’s work on drones, & what @areddie89 & @pong_ucb are trying to do with Signal
ssp.mit.edu/news/2018/woul…

.@RANDCoporation used wargames to test whether NATO could defend the Baltics & I’m sure many other organizations have used wargames to rigorously evaluate operational concepts and hypotheses, but unfortunately game reports are often not publicly released rand.org/pubs/research_…

Wargames are not unique in having limitations & as @edmcgrady rightly points out all types of analysis can be misused. They still can be useful tools for testing ideas and concepts in which human decision making is central.

To do so, however, the field needs to identify standards or best practices to include multiple runs of a game w/qualified players, incorporating formal research design considerations into game design (see @elliebartels’ dissertation research) & dramatically improving game reports