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"Get Brexit Done and End The Uncertainty"

Nifty slogan. But whether it's true depends on what you consider 'done' and how much residual uncertainty you're willing to stomach.

So on a Johnson Deal Brexit Day, what would we know, and what wouldn't we?

explaintrade.com/blogs/2019/11/…
I tried (even harder than usual) to be maximally neutral on this one.

It's a birdeye view piece on a range of issues on which there are many far superior experts than I. Welcome corrections and suggestions from trade brains-trust and general public alike.
Big thank you to @instituteforgov generally and @jl_owen specifically. I found this to be tremendously useful in putting the above blog together:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/bre…
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More from @DmitryOpines see all

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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
Did the presenter immediately ask "How?" and keep asking "How?" over and over again until Mr Gove either explained the government's plan to reverse the laws of trade policy, retracted this insanity, or started crying?
If Mr Gove had announced the government planned to "end poverty within 2 years" or "land human beings on Saturn" would he have been queried?

Has half the journalism profession just put trade policy in the "too hard" basket and given themselves a free pass on critical thinking?
"Better than the Single Market" means the EU27 will offer the UK better access to itself than it does to one another.

"Je suis désolé Germany, we would love to buy your services here in France but only the British have the right to sell to us. C'est la vie!"
Read 3 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
1/ Quick, non snarky thread on this from someone who uses Uber all the time and has a lot of sympathy for the argument "Taxis are often shit, and the industry is just trying to protect a monopoly."

I live in Geneva. Trust me, I know. Our cabs are AWFUL.

theguardian.com/technology/201…
2/ That said, I don't think people are reading this story closely enough.

Uber's entire business model is predicated on a crowd-sourced evaluation model. Every driver gets rated every trip and I can see my driver's rating well before they pick me up.
3/ Uber saves money by using this model to filter out bad drivers.

This allows it to cut down on the training and screening it does for potential drivers, but doesn't allow it to eliminate such training entirely. The government insists on SOME scrutiny.
Read 7 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
1/ Debate Trade Fact Check (imagine I'm a party political account with a blue tick):

Summary:

Pros: No one mentioned "Article XXIV"

Cons: No one said anything true or not deliberately misleading. The discourse on trade is worse than ever.
2/ Corbyn Statement: "An FTA with the US will take 7 years."

Why not 6, or 8?

There is absolutely no way to predict how long an FTA will take. I can think of no factual basis for the seven year figure, and I challenge anyone in @UKLabour to explain how they derived it.
3/ Johnson Statement: "The NHS is not for sale."

Cool. It's a free trade agreement negotiation, not an auction.

The question at hand is really whether a Conservative government will make concessions on how NHS procures drugs and which NHS tasks are open to US tender.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what does the #Brexit future hold, if it happens?

Sir Ivan Rogers peered into his crystal ball last night, and didn't like what he saw.

But even Sir Ivan doesn't have 20/20 futurevision...so here's a look at Ivan's view and other possibilities. 1/thread
First, Sir Ivan's bleak thesis from his 21-page speech. Tl;dr the #Brexit ticking clock strikes again; @BorisJohnson is boxed into a corner and such a miserable deal the Cabinet argues (erroneously) for WTO-only since it's only marginally more damaging, but preserves 'leverage'/2
@BorisJohnson How do we get here? (full text below) Well, first Johnson doesn't extend - too costly, too much "eating of words" and party opposition to "vassalage" of transition (which btw Johnson was genuinely exercised about when he was Fgn Sec). Which leads../3

prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/ivan-…
Read 25 tweets
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Simon Fraser
@SimonFraser00
1/10: Following is a thread of ten about #Brexit phase 2. If the Conservatives win a majority on 12 December there is very high likelihood UK will legally leave EU on 31 January. Far from “getting Brexit done” this would kick off another long & even more complex negotiation..
2/10: Many of the hardest #Brexit calls have been deferred until we leave. UK & EU will need to agree on a vast range of issues. Not only trade in goods & services, but also regulatory standards, aviation, fisheries, security, science, defence, data, labour mobility & more..
3/10: The scale of the task will depend on the nature of the intended relationship. The Johnson idea of Future Partnership is an arm’s length, third country free trade agreement with regulatory freedoms - a radical change from our current terms with our nearest, largest market..
Read 10 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1
EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2
Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3
Read 12 tweets
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Simon Brooke 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇪🇺
@simon_brooke
#Brexit: We got into this mess because the @conservatives couldn't cope with the fact that we weren't the top power in Europe: because, while we won almost all of the votes Europe ever had, it wasn't quite totally all. >>>
@Conservatives They couldn't cope with the fact that Germany was more influential than us - because Germany outperforms us at manufacturing, finance, exports, and, critically, diplomacy. >>>
@Conservatives After Brexit, Germany will still outperform us at manufacturing, finance, exports, and, critically, diplomacy - and Germany will be part of the most powerful trading block in the world while we will have NO FRIENDS AT ALL. >>>
Read 9 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

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