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25iQuiz: What's the LTV of a Disney+ customer? ARPU? Churn? Gross margin? CAC?

"Apptopia issued a report estimating streaming service Disney+ has reached 15.5 million downloads and generated $5 million through in-app purchases." news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
What about Hulu? What are the unit economics? Why is ARPU so low?

"It seems the effective subscription price for Hulu SVOD is very low (and even with that, Hulu barely grew in the fiscal fourth quarter, adding only about 500,000)” net new paid subscribers."
Zen Riddles:

If someone is watching DISNEY+ on a free trial are they a "customer"?

Is the cost of that free trial COGS or CAC?

If a mobile operator pays the fee for the first year for a person, how much higher will the churn rate be and how much lower is ARPU?
25iQuiz: Draw a picture of the wholesale transfer pricing involved:

"Earlier this month Disney said the price of Hulu Live will be rising to $54.99/month from $44.99/month. But Juenger estimates Hulu monthly programming costs now come to $55/month." mediapost.com/publications/a…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Fred Wilson: "I read a piece on Alan Shugart, the founder of Seagate, one of the most successful disk drive companies. Alan was quoted as saying that 'cash is more important than your mother.' That got my attention because mothers are really important." avc.com/2019/11/cash-m…
"Cash is everything in a startup. It is the fuel that keeps the car running. Startups fail largely because they run out of cash. Forecasting cash is more art than science, particularly in a growing company. You have to engage in cash forecasting [and] engage in it regularly..."
There have been a lot of breathless articles lately about the need for startups to "get profitable." What's really happening is business are being forced to focus on cash and cash management. Shit happens. Having cash gives you optionality. Not having cash when needed is deadly.
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Seattle has 484 pinball machines out for public play. That’s a pinball-to-person ratio of 1:1,835, making Seattle the No. 2 pinball city in the US. Portland is in first place with 1:1,141. Chicago, 1:14,524; New Orleans, 1:20,700; New York, 1:28,743. seattletimes.com/pacific-nw-mag…
2/ The first time I saw a dead body was the victim of a mob hit:

"Ben Cichy, who controlled Seattle pinball licenses — and was a close friend of King County Prosecutor Charles O. Carroll. On May 31, 1969, Cichy was found dead in 5 feet of water near his yacht on Yarrow Point."
3/ I wrote a 25iQ blog post about Seattle's "tolerance policy."

"Before his death Mr. Cichy contributed to my childhood education when, together with some friends, I found a chest buried near his home filled with Playboy magazines from the early 1960s." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"We’re starting to see a period where valuation is going to be the driver for future returns"

As opposed to all the other times when the tooth fairy drives future returns? reuters.com/article/us-usa…
A P/E ratio is only a shortcut for valuation.

"The forward P/E ratio for Stoxx 600 is 15.4 beow the 19.3 forward P/E of tS&P 500"

Contra: "Expected long-term cash flows, discounted by the cost of capital—not reported earnings—determine stock prices." expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
"Earnings offer a shortcut, freeing investors from the subjective and time-consuming need to assess long-term cash-flow prospects."

...Earnings are useful in valuing stocks only if they help forecast a company’s future cash flows." Rappaport and Mauboussin
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Progressive Blacksmith (aka Proggy B😎… or Kaveh)
@Prog_Blacksmith
#REPORT: #HillaryClinton & #ElizabethWarren 'Have Kept Line of Communication' For Past Several Months via @YouTube #TheProgSquare
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✨💎Jewely BlueCheck💎✨
@Jewel4Trump
🐭 Disney🐭 and 🎥 Hollywood🎥

🦄Q Drop #3499 on 7/25/19 left #Disney crumbs & pix👇🏼#DisneyCruiseLine #MagicalKingdoms
🦄Q included #EpsteinIsand secret entrance doors👇🏼
🦄Apparently Disney & Epstein have a long-standing #ChildTrafficking business going on😢
🦄More on DISNEY...
🦄#Disneyd23 - All over social media for YOUR KIDS to enjoy
🦄Below & following are pix of DISNEYd23 is shoving down children’s throats & into their minds
🦄#DeadPoetsSociety? The movie? #Disneyd23 says it gets emotional over this movie-And there’s #RobinWilliams😔
🦄This is for CHILDREN. WTF is this sh*t?
🦄The number 23 - Pic 3&4 show lots of 23’s in our midst
🦄#23 has lots of #Satanist & #occult significance/symbolism
🦄And Q said ‘symbolism would be their [DS] downfall’
Read 15 tweets
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Will McKinley
@willmckinley
#TheOffice — the No. 1 streaming show — will leave @Netflix + be exclusive to @NBCUniversal's new service.

Hoarding beloved movies + shows for the rights holder's branded #streaming services will soon be the law of the land. Prepare yourselves.

hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/offi…
The @WarnerMediaGrp streaming service — which supposedly soft-launches later this year — will reportedly be called "HBO Max"

tvline.com/2019/07/02/war…
Branding Quiz 👨‍🎓

1. If you owned a vast collection of brands, and were aggregating ALL of them into one pricey, direct-to-consumer offering, would you choose to name that offering after just ONE of the brands?

2. Isn't there enough brand confusion already with HBO Now/HBO Go?
Read 18 tweets
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Nosferatu V. Karenina
@NosferatuVK
It’s #Monday, I’m boozing it up at a 4 seat bar, the #barkeep is a long pourer, and I’m all fucking set if I get something stuck between my teeth.👇🙃 #RandomThoughts #drinking #OutAndAbout
Shooting the shit with a friend, she’s proud to be doing well with her plants - unusual for her.

The key was a #video explaining the benefits of pruning.

She needs REASONS. She got them.

Apparently, pruning in a particular manner stimulates growth hormones.
#RandomThoughts
Of course, this led to me initiating a discussion about the #movie I just watched on Hulu, called “The German Doctor.”

The main character was Josef Mengele. #ThisHappened

People, this is why I’m known in my circles as “The Black Hole Of Conversation.” SMTH
#RandomThoughts
Read 239 tweets
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She_Resists🦋
@CharityHope4All
This is a long post but please take the time to scroll through. This is the BEGINNING of the impact that tariffs are having on our economy. Everyone gets so caught up on will Manafort be found guilty, will Omarosa release another tape, what did Trump tweet, what did Rudy say. /1
But there are really important things that are going to cause makor long term damage occuring. So today I’m going to start focusing on that. This first thread will be about tariffs. /2
Yamaha Motor: $9,000,000 impact on U.S.-made boats exported to Canada and Europe starting next summer.
Based on a 25% U.S. tariff on engines

Newell Brands: $100,000,000 annualized impact. Includes Rubbermaid containers, Crock-Pot and Sunbeam appliances, and Graco infant gear
Read 46 tweets
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Joe Truzman
@Jtruzmah
#Report #Thread
1/5
 This young man is Muhammad Sharif Badwan. He was killed East of #Gaza City at the Karni crossing after being shot in the chest by #IDF gunfire on Friday afternoon. #Israel
2/5
 Many news sites refer to Badwan as either a protestor or a demonstrator who was shot and killed by the #IDF. The photo on the left, from the DailyMail, states Badwan is a protestor. The photo on the right from CGTN states Badwan is a protestor as well.
3/5
 The problem is Badwan wasn’t there to protest in the way most people think. This video was taken Friday afternoon at the Karni crossing where Palestinians were clashing w/ #IDF soldiers. At the end, you can see Badwan being evacuated after getting shot by the #IDF.
Read 5 tweets

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