SPD/🇩🇪: Thread.
Paradoxical result. During Merkel years, SPD lost its natural centre-left position to Merkel in a social-progressive GroKo (min wage, pensions, gay marriage, end nuclear+coal, refugees). Now, as Merkel is on her way out and CDU shifts right, SPD shifts left. 1/9
Paradoxical result. During Merkel years, SPD lost its natural centre-left position to Merkel in a social-progressive GroKo (min wage, pensions, gay marriage, end nuclear+coal, refugees). Now, as Merkel is on her way out and CDU shifts right, SPD shifts left. 1/9
SPD vote echoes Corbyn-Sanders trend of many centre-left parties. New SPD leadership won thanks to an alliance between the leftist young socialists and the traditional, often higher-age working-class SPD. Both groups share the focus on classical redistributive policies. 2/9
An alliance of these 2 groups is logical and plausible. Drawback: it runs the risk of abandoning the progressive, social-liberal, often urban middle-class, interested in topics like modernization of social policies, growth, 🇪🇺, 🇩🇪‘s international role, solid public finances. 3/9
Inside SPD, such views are increasingly portrayed as establishment views. New party leaders positioned themselves as anti-establishment. And while some of their ideas do make sense (eg ending black zero) many centrist voters could only hear anti-system message and turn away. 4/9
This would continue a trend: SPD already lost large parts of centrist electorate to Merkel + Greens. SPD didn’t manage to unite different views behind one narrative. Rather, there was internal polarization, especially since Schröder reforms. The leadership vote confirms this. 5/9
Many SPD officials will now insist on party unity, say no significant shift to left should be expected and that SPD won’t abandon progressive middle-class. That could be true, but it will be hard to deliver on such promises. The stance on GroKo will be a first litmus test. 6/9
On GroKo, new SPD leadership has little room for maneuvre. They will need to set conditions: the ones which they campaigned upon and which CDU/CSU will reject. Then, the only logical step could be to leave. Some see this as chance for SPD renewal. Others fear irrelevance. 7/9
A big winner could be the Greens - even if most of the vote-transfer from SPD has probably already taken place. Greens are positioning themselves as the new progressive centre-left party in 🇩🇪. If post-Merkel CDU moves right, then the Green vote reservoir will get very large. 8/9
In sum, SPD episode is another proof of tectonic shifts in German politics. The pragmatic, consensus-oriented Merkel years give rise to polarization on left + right. Under Merkel, Germany looked shielded from mega-trend of party-system recomposition. It clearly no longer is. 9/9
