About the political implications of the vote against Goulard. Thread.
Rejection was not only a vendetta against Macron. It also hurt VDL+Merkel. For VDL’s strategy, Goulard was crucial. EPP MEPs knew this. They held the key to G’s confirmation but disobeyed their new boss. 1/6
Rejection was not only a vendetta against Macron. It also hurt VDL+Merkel. For VDL’s strategy, Goulard was crucial. EPP MEPs knew this. They held the key to G’s confirmation but disobeyed their new boss. 1/6
Goulard’s defeat is also a defeat for Merkel. History shows why: Helmut Kohl had built the broadened EPP to gain control in the EU. He exercised power via EPP. Until recently Merkel did the same. That's over. EPP defeated her on the Osaka/Timmermans package. Now on Goulard. 2/6
Why was Goulard important for Merkel and 🇩🇪? 1) Goulard was the counterpart to VDL in the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 COM architecture. VDL is a 🇩🇪 with close 🇫🇷 ties. Goulard is a 🇫🇷 with close 🇩🇪 ties. 2) EPP out of control is not good for Merkel. 3) Merkel has no interest in a weakened VDL. 3/6
Implication: the new situation in Brussels is a challenge for what was meant to be the new 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 leadership in Europe. Macron shifting blame on VDL sounded like a “cri du coeur”. Message: if we don’t get our respective Commissioners appointed, how can we renew Europe? 4/6
At the same time, Macron's message confirms that the role of the EP is not understood in the same way across Europe. Clearly: the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 executive axis can’t do it alone. We won’t see a European Renaissance without a strong bottom-up dimension and a broader geographic scope. 5/6
Overall, this episode illustrates 🇫🇷 + 🇩🇪 can only claim to renew the EU together if they become politically more aligned and build broader alliances. The appointment of VDL Commission looked like a good start. Now Paris and Berlin need to make sure the train doesn't derail. 6/6
