Thread by @faisalislam

table in leaked Government presentation shows extraordinary new Irish Sea checks on the cards as a result of PMs Brexit deal - NI to GB checks export customs declarations, safety & security too - and “?” for 6 other types - import declarations, rules of origin, Agrifood (SPS) etc

Wrote about the mysteries around all this last month... Will Northern Irish 'exports' within UK need checks? bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

These two slides basically say that the May Brexit deal had commitments to “unfettered access” for NI traders to the rest of the UK, & no tariffs, quotas or Rules of Origin from GB to NI. Johnson renegotiation now depends on interpretations of “unfettered access”...

NI Sec wants to make some amendments to “limit restrictions on access for NI goods” - which rather confirms that some such “restrictions” on trade within the United Kingdom, are anticipated as a result of the Johnson Brexit deal

Key variables - actual barriers to trade within UK depend on zero tariff trade deal (possible)... regulatory alignment (PM says he doesn’t want that)... UKG “appetite for risk” ie customs/ fraud/ security risk... EU export procedures,

Reported some of this before -presentation acknowledges below could mean new checks/ frictions for NI traders trading within UK with rest of GB, contrary to reassurances

MFN - World trade rules
CITES - endangered species
Kimberley - conflict diamond
TRIPS - Intellectual property

Some of these new trade formalities, within the UK, could be mitigated by UK Govt acting unilaterally, but others rely on further negotiation with EU, decisions of the “Joint Committee” and World Trade rules... that has risks though, the document says.

👀
... Econ impact:
Certainly seems to suggest physical checks “will be” both ways - PM has repeatedly denied NI to GB.

Burden can be reduced... but 98% of NI exporters “likely to struggle”.

NI “High St goods likely to increase in price”
“tariff equivalents on 30% purchases”