1. Pres Trump is giving a speech to the Israeli American Council tomorrow. Plenty of rumors about what he'll say, including the possibility he'll give a green light to Israeli unilateral annexation of the Jordan Valley. That's a bad idea: for the US, Israel, and our relationship.
2. Why? There is no outcome that resolves the Israeli-Palestinian conflict other than a two-state solution. Every other outcome is no solution, and would instead perpetuate the conflict in some form.
3. And while the 2SS is not possible now, nor particularly popular on either side, the imperative for US policy is to keep it alive for when leaders emerge who can make another attempt. (To be clear up front: Palestinian leaders bear much of this burden, not just Israeli.)
4. Unilateral Israeli annexation in the WB could be a death knell for a 2SS. It would represent a de jure action that would make 2 states near impossible. As @mkoplow has written, it would start a series of dominoes falling that would inexorably lead to much broader annexation.
@mkoplow 5. US interests include keeping alive a path to end the conflict, preserving Israel's Jewish & dem character, helping Pals achieve their legit aspirations, stabilizing Israel's peace treaty with Jordan, and enabling full normalization between Israel & other Arab states.
@mkoplow 6. Unilateral annexation would put all of those interests at risk. Any responsible US administration would tell Israel we oppose unilateral annexation, as the House did today in passing HRes 326. If Trump won't do so, in as little as 13 months his Democratic successor will.
@mkoplow 7. And Israelis ought to bear that in mind. If annexation is undertaken in 2020, it sets up an immediate clash with a new Democratic administration in 2021. Is that the right foot to start that relationship? I don't think so.
@mkoplow 8. I certainly hope Israel would not actually follow through on annexation. I'm not a lawyer, but it seems like a farther reaching policy shift than a transition/caretaker government is normally empowered to make. But it's also possible after the upcoming 3rd election in March.
@mkoplow 9. If Trump is reelected (God forbid) all bets are off. The final nail in the coffin of the 2SS is not the only or even the worst damage that would result from that calamity. But Israelis would be wise not to bet on this outcome.
@mkoplow 10. I have no idea how a Democratic administration would respond to Israeli unilateral annexation. Would it join a condemnation at the UN? Would it recognize a Palestinian state? Would it declare support for one-person one-vote between the Jordan and the Mediterranean?
@mkoplow 11. Some of those are bad ideas. But let's be clear: annexation would move Israel down the path toward becoming a binational state. If Israel chooses to no longer be a Jewish and democratic state, that will do real damage to the values-based partnership between our countries.
@mkoplow 12. And that will, in turn, do damage, over time, to our security partnership. It won't be possible for it to be unaffected, including in unpredictable ways. Is it really wise for Israel to set off down that path? I know it's unwise for the US to encourage it.
@mkoplow 13. Trump may not care about any of this. But a Democratic admin that wants to defend the US interest in the US-Israel partnership, which is based on our shared values, would have no choice but to respond to Israeli actions deemed highly injurious to that US interest.
@mkoplow 14. If Trump thinks greenlighting annexation is a smart electoral play with Jewish voters, he's nuts. Trump’s record is a direct affront to the values of the Jewish community, and the vast majority believe that his unstable foreign policy is making the US (and Israel) less safe.
@mkoplow 15. Per @AJCGlobal, 76% of American Jews have an unfavorable opinion of the job he is doing as president. We won't forget his outrageous, and dangerous, charge of "disloyalty" against Jews who vote Democratic, or the way his rhetoric is embraced by anti-Semites.
@mkoplow @AJCGlobal 16. Trump will get a near historic low of votes from American Jews in 2020, which he has richly earned. Israel should not be seduced to do something really damaging to US-Israel ties in the final year of his term as he instrumentalizes Israel for his political needs. End.
