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YouGov MRP estimate for Kensington:

LAB: 38%
CON: 36%
LD: 21%
BXP: 2%
GRN: 2%

It's going to be decided by Lib Dem voters here.

@SamGyimah is too far behind now. This is a definite switch to Labour for tactical or vote swappers.

#generalelections2019
2/ Aberdeen South YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 40%
SNP: 39%
Lib Dems: 11%
Labour: 11%

Tactical vote for SNP can definitely #GTTO
3/ Moray - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 45%
SNP: 45%
Labour: 4%
Lib Dems: 4%
UKIP: 1%

Tactical vote for SNP
4/ Sedgefield - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 40%
Labour: 39%
Brexit: 12%
Lib Dems: 5%
Green: 2%

Tactical vote for Labour could definitely #GTTO
East Devon - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 47%
Independent Claire Wright: 47%
Labour: 3%
Lib Dems: 2%
Greens: 1%

Tactical vote for Claire Wright Independent
Ochil & South Perthshire:

Conservative: 42%
SNP: 42%
Labour: 9%
Lib Dems: 6%
UKIP: 1%

Tactical vote for SNP to #GTTO
Brecon and Radnorshire - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 48%
Lib Dems: 37%
Labour: 13%

Tactical vote for Lib Dems to #GTTO, otherwise an MP convicted of fraud gets back in.
8/ Chingford and Woodgreen YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 47%
Labour: 45%
Lib Dems: 8%

Tactical vote clearly for Labour's @faizashaheen to dump Iain Duncan Smith out.

Inject it into my veins if this happens.
9/ Ynys Mon - YouGov MRP:

Labour: 33%
Plaid Cymru: 30%
Conservative: 28%
Brexit: 8%

Tactical vote to Labour incase of a Tory bounce of further BXP collapse.
10/ Cities of London and Westminster - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 38%
Lib Dems: 32%
Labour: 25%
Greens: 3%

Tactical vote for Lib Dems I don't like Chuka Umuna, but the priority is to #GTTO
11/ Gordon - YouGov MRP

SNP: 41%
Conservative: 40%
Lib Dems: 13%
Labour: 7%

Tactical vote for SNP to #GTTO
12/ Darlington - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 45%
Labour: 39%
Lib Dems: 5%
Brexit Party: 7%
Green: 2%

Tactical vote for Labour or this is a Tory GAIN.
13/ Bridgend - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 42%
Labour: 45%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 5%
Green: 2%
Plaid Cymru: 4%

Tactical vote for Labour to keep the Tories out
14/ Aberconwy - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 44%
Labour: 43%
Lib Dems: 5%
Plaid Cymru: 8%

A tactical vote for Labour can #GTTO
15/ Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 42%
Labour: 12%
Lib Dems: 6%
SNP: 40%

A tactical vote for SNP can #gtto here.
16/ Esher and Walton - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 46%
Labour: 8%
Lib Dems: 44%

A tactical vote for the Lib Dems here can dump Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab out.
17/ Bolsover - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 41%
Labour: 40%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 12%
Green: 2%

Tactically vote for Labour or this becomes a Tory GAIN and Dennis Skinner goes.
18/ Bolton North East - YouGov MRP:

Conservatives: 44%
Labour: 44%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 6%
Green: 2%

Tactically vote Labour here, or this becomes a Conservative GAIN.
14/ Great Grimsby - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 42%
Labour: 41%
Brexit Party: 11%
Lib Dems : 3%

Unless people vote tactically for Labour here, it will become a Conservative GAIN.
15/ Hazel Grove - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 50%
Labour: 10%
Lib Dems: 40%

Margin of error still makes it possible for Lib Dem win if tactical voting employed.
16/ Angus - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 43%
Labour: 5%
Lib Dems: 6%
SNP: 46%

Tactical vote for SNP to ensure #GTTO here.
17/ Argyll and Bute - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 7%
Lib Dems: 18%
SNP: 40%

Tactical vote for SNP to #GTTO here
18/ Ashfield - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 40%
Labour: 35%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 10%
Green: 2%

Tactical vote for Labour, or this will become a Conservative GAIN.
19/ Bassetlaw - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 45%
Labour: 38%
Lib Dems: 5%
Brexit Party: 12%

Tactical vote for Labour or this becomes a Conservative GAIN.
20/ Birmingham Northfield - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 41%
Labour: 44%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 6%
Green: 2%

Tactically vote Labour here, or it risks a Conservative GAIN.
21/ Bishop Auckland - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 47%
Labour: 42%
Lib Dems: 3%
Brexit Party: 8%

Tactically vote Labour to stop this becoming a Tory GAIN.
22/ Blackpool South - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 44%
Labour: 39%
Lib Dems: 3%
Brexit Party: 11%
Green: 2%

Vote tactically for Labour or this will be a Conservative GAIN.
23/ Bury South - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 47%
Labour: 40%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 4%
Green: 2%

Vote tactically for Labour or this will become a Conservative GAIN.
24/ Colne Valley - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 47%
Labour: 41%
Lib Dems: 5%
Brexit Party: 4%
Green: 2%

Vote tactically for Labour to stop a Conservative GAIN.
25/ Dagenham and Rainham - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 42%
Labour: 41%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 10%
Green: 2%

Vote tactically for Labour or this will become a Conservative GAIN.
26/ Clwyd South - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 42%
Labour: 44%
Lib Dems: 4%
Brexit Party: 6%

Vote tactically for Labour to stop a Conservative GAIN.
27/ Coventry South - YouGov MRP:

Conservative: 39%
Labour: 45%
Lib Dems: 6%
Brexit Party: 5%
Green: 2%

Vote tactically to stop a Conservative GAIN.
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Related hashtags

#generalelections2019 #GTTO

More from @RespectIsVital see all

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Alex Tiffin
@RespectIsVital
I'm a white Muslim.

I've endured;

• My house getting torched, TWICE
• Attacks in the street
• Verbal abuse
• Death threats
• Doxxing
• Getting called a "race traitor, Jihadist" & worse.

Boris Johnson has enabled the above

I am TERRIFIED of a Tory majority government.
2/ I live with daily abuse and threats just because I'm Muslim.

Journalists like @paulhutcheon gaslit me using my mental health condition, #BPD, to "infer" I'm a terrorist.

I got credible death threats due to him, yet the Daily Record DEFENDED it.

Muslims are scapegoated 3
3/ The Tories have a massive #Islamophobia problem.

Because they deflect or deny it, people think they can get away with it too.

From Truro to Inverness, Muslims are facing increased abuse.

All because the Prime Minister and his party have made Islamophobia mainstream.
Read 9 tweets
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Alex Tiffin
@RespectIsVital
Can all my followers please retweet this.

We have 1 major hospital for the entire Highlands, have to travel hundreds of miles for specialist care & now our hospital is at capacity.

I'm not blaming anyone in particular here btw, as this is long running issue.
2/ Raigmore covers maternity services for places up to 3 hours drive away.

Earlier this year there was a set of twins born in different towns because of this.

I had to drive 3 hours to Edinburgh for a 15 minute appt.

There's NO Neonatal Intensive Care beds the Highlands
3/ NHS Highland staff do an amazing job but are being let down by corporate bosses here.

Waiting times are ridiculous, services offered are shrinking thus leaving trips to the central belt being required.

People will be suffering because of this decades long issue.
Read 6 tweets
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Alex Tiffin
@RespectIsVital
ATTENTION

I urge everyone make a Data Subject Access Request to the @LibDems after it has emerged that they have gathered data on EVERY registered UK voter.

It's been labelled it a legally dubious use of the political data exemption under GDPR:

data.protection@libdems.org.uk
2/ Background on why you should request this data:

The Lib Dems are using data to profile EVERY voter in UK - and give you a score. news.sky.com/story/the-lib-…
3/ If you have Facebook, I have posted these details along with a Subject Access Request (SAR) template to send to the Liberal Democrats, on my page.

m.facebook.com/story.php?stor…
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Hilary #ABTV - all 3 versions
@atatimelikethis
More reminders.

#Kensington. Vote Labour tomorrow. Here's why.

I see the appeal of lib dems. I want to vote for Sam.

But he has shifted remain votes from lab to lib not con.

That's the sort of outcome we don't need.

Vote #labour and @emmadentcoad tomorrow in #Kensington.
The recriminations between #labour and #libdems on splitting votes go way back before #GE19 - but check my timeline - I've been constructive advocting cooperation.

I don't care who has done what to the other.

I care if we all lose. I'm objective.

Not least because I'm prepared to change my view as we get new data.

At the start of the campaign, I advocated for Lib Dems in #Kensington. @emmadentcoad
Is a good MP, but data said libs had a better chance.

Now, on the most credible data we have, voting LD = tory win here.
Read 5 tweets
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Samuel Marrache
@SamuelMarrache
THREAD: YOUGOV MRP SHOWS TACTICAL VOTING IS WORKING

Analysing the most recent YouGov MRP data it’s clear #TacticalVoting has caused WIDESPREAD shifts of 2-3% towards parties best placed to challenge the Tories.

16 extra seats can now easily be won & they’re listed below.
On a very quick analysis of the data I’ve chosen some key constituencies where tactical voting is having a HUGE impact on unseating a Tory and other seats where just another small push can lead to preventing a Tory MP.
16 SEATS THE TORIES WILL EASILY LOSE WITH ANOTHER 3% #TacticalVote SWING - Vote for:

- Bolton North East @DavidCrausby
- Cheltenham @mpmwilko
- Chingford and Woodford Green @faizashaheen
- Dagenham and Rainham @JonCruddas_1
- Delyn @DavidHansonMP
- Leigh @JoPlattMP
Read 18 tweets
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Hilary #ABTV - all 3 versions
@atatimelikethis
Latest Rationale and Sources - 08.12. 10:43

If Kensington were an easy call, we wouldn't be commenting...our current simple recommendation is linked to the tweet which directed you here.

if you want references, detail, or who want to understand our tradeoffs, this is for you.
1. Affluence
7th most affluent constituency in country by salary,
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/economy-busine…
K2
2. Europhilia
Kensington does not fit the stereotype associated with historically Tory constituencies. At 69% leave Kensington is well within the top 10% of remain supporting constituencies (rank 40/650).
medium.com/@chrishanretty…
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 16 tweets
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Max 🇪🇺
@max_ok1
We all know that tactical voting will be essential in this election. But we've all seen tribalism in action, and many voters still want pacts to be formed, even if the leadership can’t/won’t sort one out themselves.
#DontSplitTheOpposition
So why won't candidates stand down to enable a tactical vote? I want them to publicly explain, knowing that lots of voters want this from them.
#DontSplitTheOpposition
I've looked at the data from the MRP poll, and searched for the constituencies that have a Tory majority in the poll, but where tactical voting would make a difference.
#DontSplitTheOpposition
Read 47 tweets
Profile picture
Andrew Lewin
@Alewin7
Thread 1/6
To #Labour voters who back a #PeoplesVote and are campaigning to #Remain in the EU, please ignore this angry article. It does not speak for the majority.
The worst thing Labour supporters like Owen can do at the #EUElections2019 is lecture and patronise Remain voters.
2/6
 Instead, let's be honest about the progress made in moving #Labour policy on #Brexit forward, while recognising we are not where we need to be.
The good news:
-203 Labour MPs voted for a #PeoplesVote in parliament
-34 Labour candidates have signed the @Remain_Labour pledge.
3/6
 Less good news:
- The NEC decision confirms that backing a #PeoplesVote is an 'option', but did not commit to it unambiguously.

#Remain campaigners have every reason to be frustrated. But instead of attacking them (as Owen does), we need to convince them to stick with Labour
Read 6 tweets

Trending hashtags

#tacticallyvote #HongKongProtest #Kensington #TacticalVoting #EP2019 #marr #HowardDean #NonAmerican #Nixon #ValeofGlamorgan #NOW #CORP #ByElectionNow #CA48 #WI #RegisteredtoVote #Harley #followback #UKIP #Southport #GE19 #taxreturns #GE2019 #BoardofDirectors #MRP
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