Latest Rationale and Sources - 08.12. 10:43
If Kensington were an easy call, we wouldn't be commenting...our current simple recommendation is linked to the tweet which directed you here.
if you want references, detail, or who want to understand our tradeoffs, this is for you.
If Kensington were an easy call, we wouldn't be commenting...our current simple recommendation is linked to the tweet which directed you here.
if you want references, detail, or who want to understand our tradeoffs, this is for you.
1. Affluence
7th most affluent constituency in country by salary,
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/economy-busine…
7th most affluent constituency in country by salary,
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/economy-busine…
K2
2. Europhilia
Kensington does not fit the stereotype associated with historically Tory constituencies. At 69% leave Kensington is well within the top 10% of remain supporting constituencies (rank 40/650).
medium.com/@chrishanretty…
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
2. Europhilia
Kensington does not fit the stereotype associated with historically Tory constituencies. At 69% leave Kensington is well within the top 10% of remain supporting constituencies (rank 40/650).
medium.com/@chrishanretty…
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
K3 North Kensington
Despite average affluence, it has unequal distribution. N Kensington amongst most deprived areas of the country
trustforlondon.org.uk/news/new-analy…
Despite average affluence, it has unequal distribution. N Kensington amongst most deprived areas of the country
trustforlondon.org.uk/news/new-analy…
4. Taken together these factors have shifted a historically safe Conservative seat to, for the first time in 2017, a Labour voting seat. The variance in the data sources below is due to the boundary changes
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensingto…
rbkc.gov.uk/council/local-…
rbkc.gov.uk/PDF/election_n…
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensingto…
rbkc.gov.uk/council/local-…
rbkc.gov.uk/PDF/election_n…
5. Grenfell
There are no data associated on the voting impact of Grenfell, however, we consider it an anchoring effect for the already strong Labour vote in N Kensington - and an important reason why tactical votes may move from LD to LAB more easily than from LAB to LD
There are no data associated on the voting impact of Grenfell, however, we consider it an anchoring effect for the already strong Labour vote in N Kensington - and an important reason why tactical votes may move from LD to LAB more easily than from LAB to LD
6. Used to be Tory/Might be again Voters
Unusually high preparedness for Tory voters to shift to Labour in Kensington. Looking at GE results above, a minimum 10% Tories shifted the vote in 2017, but estimates can reach up to 30% depending on tactical effects built into prior year
Unusually high preparedness for Tory voters to shift to Labour in Kensington. Looking at GE results above, a minimum 10% Tories shifted the vote in 2017, but estimates can reach up to 30% depending on tactical effects built into prior year
K7. Tactical Voting.
These are the headline local tradeoffs (not comprehensive).
How many tory voters who switched in 2017 will continue to switch in 2019?
What is the effect of the sitting and now well known Labour MP?
What effect does a new high profile Lib Dem PPC have?
These are the headline local tradeoffs (not comprehensive).
How many tory voters who switched in 2017 will continue to switch in 2019?
What is the effect of the sitting and now well known Labour MP?
What effect does a new high profile Lib Dem PPC have?
K7.1 TacVote National
Local effects are not isolated from national effects including.
Weariness with Brexit impasse
Voter Reception to the party positions on Brexit and other policies
Changes in party leadership and campaigns
Change in cross-party cooperation since 2017.
Local effects are not isolated from national effects including.
Weariness with Brexit impasse
Voter Reception to the party positions on Brexit and other policies
Changes in party leadership and campaigns
Change in cross-party cooperation since 2017.
K7.2 Realism
Even were 2019 an identical rerun of 2017 with no political changes made, it would be impossible to predict #Kensington
A 0.05% vote win is so small it gets lost in minute changes in mundane things like weather forecasts.
Everyone hoped for LAB or LD breakthrough
Even were 2019 an identical rerun of 2017 with no political changes made, it would be impossible to predict #Kensington
A 0.05% vote win is so small it gets lost in minute changes in mundane things like weather forecasts.
Everyone hoped for LAB or LD breakthrough
K7.3 Unrealism.
Unfortunately, no such breakthrough came. On the now highly variant advice, if anything the situation is less certain.
However we have to make an attempt to align voters because without a large tactical vote in Kensington, the Tories have a high chance to win.
Unfortunately, no such breakthrough came. On the now highly variant advice, if anything the situation is less certain.
However we have to make an attempt to align voters because without a large tactical vote in Kensington, the Tories have a high chance to win.
K7.4 Polling Data
Except for historic polls the most recent local poll data we have is a disputed Deltapoll from November.
Dispute is due to timing and skew. Even the Observer should have caveated that poll.
The more advanced pollsters don't back it - a severe warning.
Except for historic polls the most recent local poll data we have is a disputed Deltapoll from November.
Dispute is due to timing and skew. Even the Observer should have caveated that poll.
The more advanced pollsters don't back it - a severe warning.
K7.4 Polling "Alignment"
There is none. For these reasons.
No Reco
Originally backed LD, new method. Downgraded due to LD national trend
LAB
Historic poll & simple sitting incumbent prioritisation
LD
Deltapoll skew, new method "adjustments", alliances
votesmart2019.com
There is none. For these reasons.
No Reco
Originally backed LD, new method. Downgraded due to LD national trend
LAB
Historic poll & simple sitting incumbent prioritisation
LD
Deltapoll skew, new method "adjustments", alliances
votesmart2019.com
K7.5
Why the Change?
Deltapoll and new method analysis was done at high point for LD and a LAB low. Things changed.
It's not as simple as to apply national changes in Kensington local poll but if you do, the picture changes.
Hence 2 polls withdrew decisons and advised: Wait.
Why the Change?
Deltapoll and new method analysis was done at high point for LD and a LAB low. Things changed.
It's not as simple as to apply national changes in Kensington local poll but if you do, the picture changes.
Hence 2 polls withdrew decisons and advised: Wait.
K7.6 Well thanks pollsters, when do they get around to helping us?
Hopefully someone will reply to let us know. Neither RemainUnited or BestforBritain have yet released a new view and time is already too late for some postal voters.
This is why we've gone ahead with our view.
Hopefully someone will reply to let us know. Neither RemainUnited or BestforBritain have yet released a new view and time is already too late for some postal voters.
This is why we've gone ahead with our view.
K8. Voting advice
The question we will address.
How to vote in Kensington to maximise the chances of a Tory loss & (LD) or potential (LAB) vote to remain?
Even this is political. Some remainers reject LAB due to stance.
Our view is therefore only for those who consider them.
The question we will address.
How to vote in Kensington to maximise the chances of a Tory loss & (LD) or potential (LAB) vote to remain?
Even this is political. Some remainers reject LAB due to stance.
Our view is therefore only for those who consider them.
