Of a count of more than 15M, painting the rosiest modeling picture for Democrats possible in Texas, Indies are still only 35% of the electorate.
Suspect the poll packs Democrats in Indies. It happened often in 2018.
When modeled at 50% voting likelihood, TX is still GOP+13.
Suspect the poll packs Democrats in Indies. It happened often in 2018.
When modeled at 50% voting likelihood, TX is still GOP+13.
This is that modeling scenario for Texas re: above. While it looks ugly for Ds, it's actually not as bad if we allocated nearly all remaining Indies to their share.
Looks a lot like Cruz vs. Beto, which an honest take would conclude a fluke until more data suggests otherwise.
Looks a lot like Cruz vs. Beto, which an honest take would conclude a fluke until more data suggests otherwise.
The point I'm trying to make here is how easy it would be — one might even say, convenient — to mistake Democrats as Indies in Texas.
That's one of many reasons why it's crucial for pollsters to source via voter files in the modern era.
That's one of many reasons why it's crucial for pollsters to source via voter files in the modern era.
Adding response to a great question to the thread, here.
Going back even further one more on that response, here.
