There are a number of reasons for hoping that the exit poll is less accurate than is sometimes the case. The Tory numbers being one & the SNP number being another.
The SNP over/under in terms of a good result was typically reckoned to be around 45 seats. 55 would be quite a surprise for them too, I suspect.
But Holyrood 2021 - which was already going to be a barnburner - is now, if the exit poll is even half-right - going to be an election that may go a long way towards determining if Boris Johnson is going to be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Sure, "Stop Brexit" was the SNP message in the final part of the campaign. This vote, however, (usual caveat about poll accuracy etc) will be rebranded as a demand for Indyref2. They lost the moral claim to that in 2017; they might get it back tonight.
The Tories will refuse a Section 30 request but if the pro-indy parties win a majority at Holyrood 2021 it will become very hard to deny Indyref2. Anything more than 50 seats gives the SNP great momentum going into that election.
"Events, dear boy, events" may yet complicate matters for the SNP & throw everything into chaos but, again if this exit poll is halfway accurate, well... it's a pretty bleak result for Unionism.
And, if so, we may one day judge that the United Kingdom was lost on the playing fields of Eton.
And, again, *right now* and in the heat of the moment, there's a palpable sense of a mental realignment across much of Scotland. I strongly suspect the step from "No" to "Yes" just got a lot smaller for a lot of people.
Anyway, must stop writing this week's column for The Sunday Times here.
