French rail/other workers striking against pension reform since 5 Dec have outlasted the successful strikes of 1995 (on same issue). They are approaching (on Wed) the 28 day record for rail strikes set in 1986-7. They will soon exceed (Jan 6) the strikes of May 1968.
BUT...(1)
BUT...(1)
The country is far from being paralysed as it was in 1995 and 1968. Even the railways haven’t been halted as they were in 1986. Other than the Paris Metro/ buses and the railways, the strike has been scarcely felt (apart from a few closures like the Paris Opera). (2)
Why this difference? First, the strike is v limited. Some on Twitter insist on calling it a general strike. It’s not. I did the figures. Only 0.58% of Fr public sector are on strike and 0.11% of entire Fr workforce. Almost no one in private sector is striking (unlike 1995). (3)
In SNCF (railways), the number of strikers has fallen to 8.5% (compared to 12% at start). Higher but undisclosed % in RATP (Metro etc). Almost half of rail drivers are striking; even more in RATP. Hence impact on trains/metros which have been badly disrupted but not stopped. (4)
There will be roughly half the usual TGV’s in coming week but not so many local and regional trains. Two automated Metro lines have worked normally since the start. They’re driven by computers which are not on strike. Eight other Metro lines will open tomorrow at rush hours. (5)
There are 17,000 rail workers on strike, 12,000 in RATP and about 600 in EDF (electricity). A generous total for other strikers is 4,500. Total Fr workforce is 28,400,000; public sector 5,800,000. Hence my %'s above. This may change. Some lawyers etc may strike from early Jan.(6)
Conclusion: pressure on Macron to concede is much less than it was on Chirac in 1995. His govt is picking off different trades with special deals. Whole idea was to merge 42 state pension systems into 1. Likely outcome is 1 system with 42 exceptions. Worth bother? Discuss. (7)
The only effective strikes are by workers defending very special pension regimes ie rail drivers, who can retire from 52 on double average pension. The more militant unions say this is a strike against the “neo-liberal” principle of the reform. Then why are so few striking ? (8)
Conclusion 2: This is now mostly a battle of political wills. Macron needs bragging rights for the 2022 election. The much divided unions want to defeat Macron – and one another. Dispute will drag on deep into Jan. Macron may "win" but anger more people than he impresses.
(9/9)
(9/9)
