Some ideas by me on the latest comments coming out of #NorthKorea tonight: "“North Korea has, in effect, put an #ICBM to Donald Trump’s head in order to gain the two concessions it wants most: sanctions relief and some sort of security guarantee.
Kim Jong-un is playing a dangerous game of geopolitical chicken. He is gambling that threatening another demonstration of his ability to hit the U.S. homeland with a nuclear weapon will somehow push America into granting more concessions. #NorthKorea
I would argue Kim’s potential ICBM test will backfire, as Washington will be forced to respond—most likely with more sanctions, an increased military presence in East Asia and more fire and fury style threats coming from Donald Trump’s Twitter account. #NorthKorea
Trump will surely feel personally insulted by a long-range missile test, considering the three historic meetings between the two leaders and a pledge by Kim to hold back such tests. #NorthKorea
If Kim could show restraint and wait for President Trump’s likely acquittal in the U.S. Senate on impeachment charges Washington might offer a much more favorable agreement, wanting a big foreign policy victory heading into the 2020 election. #NorthKorea
If Kim does test a new #ICBM we will once again enter a dark when the slightest misstep or miscalculation by either Pyongyang or Washington could spark a resumption of the Korean War—a conflict that technically never ended and took millions of lives. #NorthKorea
In fact, if tensions spike in the coming days we could be in for a more dangerous period on the Korean Peninsula than in 2017, as there is no clear off-ramp to ease tensions such as the Winter Olympics in South Korea.
With U.S. Presidential elections coming as well as elections in South Korea, the mood for compromise might have gone up in smoke the moment #NorthKorea sends its ICBM into the sky.
