This admin determined that the cost of tolerating Soleimani alive had now exceeded the benefits of not killing him. We must wait and see whether that was the right call, no one knows today.
US and Israel have different roles and capacities. The US is the mightiest military power around, owning attacks cld be part of deterrence, showing force, restoring escalation dominance
The Iranian regime is not suicidal, it is strategic, calculating (even if it miscalculates sometimes), so likelihood of an all-out direct US-Iran war is low.
This thread by @hahussain breaks it down
(this by @hushamalhashimi )
NATO mtg tmrw, in calls w/Iraq Pres+PM France repeats imp of keeping coalition
This below from @RashaAlAqeedi - and I wld add: Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were neither able to prevent ISIS from forming, nor to eliminate it.
-hedge against Israel jumping into fray (simultaneous fronts = difficult)
-rally morale of Iran-backed militias (sign of effect of Solemani killing) => read this from @hxhassan for more:
-manage expectations: not gonna target high value US person, because no equivalent to Soleimani
-give Iran+proxies/affiliates time/flexibility by fixing wide objective of ending US presence in Mideast, (akin to stated goal of liberating Jerusalem)
-attempt to distance Iran axis from any kidnappings of US civilians that may take place. If this happens, expect claim by some unknown group as we've seen in past
-says Iran not asking anything of affiliates, but fixes same target: US military
Preservation of [anti-ISIS] coalition is key...urge Iraqi authorities cont providing necessary support"
These are important - to a certain extent.
Military actions will be better indicators of where we are on the scale of escalation and war.
Bases on alert➡️No US/coalition deaths.
Fired own missiles➡️direct response for #Soleimani
Khamenei, Zarif stmts after ➡️off-ramp, after all the bluster.
Wait to see what Trump does.
🇮🇷 using ballistic missiles is noteworthy
Now we wait for covert Iranian response. That may take a while.