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1. This is a thread collecting some of the most insightful articles and reports I've read on the likely impact of Soleimani's death.

What's clear is that however decisive it felt for Trump to order the airstrike, he does not get to decide what happens next.
2. @nargesbajoghli: "General Suleimani’s influence will survive him; in fact, it may have suddenly grown significantly. The United States just killed a very popular figure within powerful armed circles across the region."
nytimes.com/2020/01/03/opi…
3. @barbaraslavin1: "Any chances for American diplomacy with Iran are dead for the duration of the Trump presidency — if not longer."
nytimes.com/2020/01/03/opi…
4. @mashabani: "For all his crowing about the decisive blow dealt to an insolent enemy, Trump may be about to discover that the problem with martyrs is that they live forever."
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
5. @AOstovar: "Iran... will more likely find ways and opportunities to kill Americans in the region. That doesn't mean that they will pursue full-scale warfare, but they will look for revenge to recapture leverage and scuttle U.S. efforts to deter."
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
6. Gary Sick: "This escalation was utterly unnecessary. It was triggered by the U.S. decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement. What happens next is likely to be very ugly."
responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/01/03/tru…
7. @Rob_Malley: "The outcome is all the more tragic because the contours of a solution have been apparent: a tactical détente whereby Iran fully restores its compliance with the nuclear deal... in return for a reprieve from the crushing... US sanctions."
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
8. @FaghihiRohollah: "It seems Soleimani's assassination is bringing Iranians from across the spectrum together, at least temporarily."
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
9. @peterson__scott: "The result is that the death of General Soleimani – the man who has garnered the highest approval ratings in Iran... will have an impact, if not on Iran’s ability to exact revenge."
csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E…
10. @ilangoldenberg: "The Islamic Republic’s behavior over the past few months and over its long history suggests that it may not rush to retaliate. Rather, it will carefully and patiently choose an approach that it deems effective."
foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/…
11. @emilyctamkin: "One need not imagine the death of a high-profile American to suspect that the death of Soleimani, presented as an act of deterrence, will cause at least as many issues as it solves."
newstatesman.com/world/middle-e…
12. @RichardMNephew + @JasonBordoff: "While we will have an election in 2020 and depending on the outcome, there may be an expectation that we can transition back to previous policy... far too much will likely happen in 2020 to make this... possible."
energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/inter…
13. @EllieGeranmayeh: “For European capitals, this means their worst predictions — they warned the Trump administration that withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal would trigger a chain of escalation with Iran — are becoming reality.”
politico.eu/article/crisis…
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
1. This Reuters report lends credence to US claims that the strike on Soleimani was in “self-defense,” but the narrative doesn’t match other reporting (see @rcallimachi) that the intelligence on an imminent threat was “razor thin.” There’s a pattern...
reuters.com/article/us-ira…
2. In recent weeks I have noticed a tempo of Reuters “exclusives” drawn from unnamed and remarkably well-placed sources in the Iranian and Iraqi governments. The articles all lack a byline, but are mostly written by Michael Georgy—it’s not clear who is doing the actual reporting.
3. Reuters is a world leading news organization whose reporting I rely on greatly. They surely have excellent sources in Iraq and even Iran. But as a wire service with an outsize influence, it seems possible well-positioned sources are intending to shape narratives via Reuters.
Read 15 tweets
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
Rouhani has announced that Russia will provide Iran a $5bn loan. Unless the loan obligates Iran to remain in full JCPOA compliance, it will dramatically undermine Europe’s position on the deal. If it does include those obligations, Russia may achieve what Europe could not.
Consider the optics of Macron seeking permission from the Treasury Dept. to provide Iran $15bn in credit so that Iran stops reducing its JCPOA compliance, failing to do so, and Russia giving Iran $5bn anyway. A profound humiliation for Europe.
Finally, this assumes the loan materializes. There is reason to be skeptical given the history of Russia-Iran economic ties.
Read 3 tweets
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Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
1. @IanTalley, what exactly is the journalistic value of this article? Did you ask Brian Hook any questions about the goal behind starving Iran of foreign currency? Did you ask about the possible humanitarian impact? This reads like an FDD press release.
wsj.com/articles/iran-…
2. You failed to explain to readers that in May of this year the Trump admin froze the use of escrow accounts tied to the cancelled oil waivers. The waivers ensured that Iran could only use of its oil revenues for the purchases of food + medicine. Treasury had *direct* oversight.
3. Did Brian Hook explain why the Trump administration had decided that rather than tightly control the use of Iran's foreign currency reserves through this proven system it was seeking to deny their use outright, even for humanitarian trade?
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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Emma Picken.
@emmacpicken
Everyone should read this from @OzKaterji to understand what the death of #Soleimani means to the people it will affect.
It wont affect people like me, so I chose care to amplify those who have suffered and have a deep knowledge of the region.
1/5
 newstatesman.com/world/middle-e…
The first time I felt truely the foreign policy of @UKLabour was criminal was when @Ed_Miliband walked away from Syria.
The influence of StWC in party policy was as alive then as it is now.
They are not the people who are dying.
Educate yourself.
Care more.
2/5
Who are we if we just walk away, shut our eyes, pretend there is not a war going on already, that millions haven't been slaughtered. You wrote your petitions and made it impossible for anyone in labour to be internationalist.
You leave it to people like Trump because of this.3/5
Read 5 tweets
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Charles Thépaut
@diplocharlie
[Thread] There are so many angles to #Soleimani’s death that it will take time to grasp the full picture of it. But let’s try to look at a number of issues :
1/ The event : #Soleimani was one of the most important actors of today’s Middle East politics. His killing by the US is the most significant event in the region in recent years. Twitter tells you analysts are in shock : “we enter unchartered territories”.
2/ The spy : Head of the #IRGC, he was the face of Iranian regional expansion in the 2010’ and the architect of a network of militias in #Iraq, #Syria, #Lebanon, which has shaped these countries’ current situation.
Read 22 tweets
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Amar Diwakar
@indignant_sepoy
Qasem Soleimani's death is certain to escalate tensions between the US & Iran. Iran hardliners and neo-cons are celebrating, no doubt - they've been lusting for confrontation with Tehran and have just upped the ante. But you know who else is celebrating? Iraqis and Syrians.
Soleimani directed the murderous crackdown against Iraqi protesters and oversaw a genocide in Syria. He was the face of an expansionary sectarian project that pitted people against each other by fostering loyalists that would kill their own people, as Tehran carved up the region.
He was indispensable for his ability to keep Tehran's proxies united, and it has no operative to fill that role now. In Syria it might spell the end of Iran's goal to apply it's Iraqi blueprint of militias and loyalists, as it consolidates in Iraq & Lebanon in the midst of unrest
Read 14 tweets
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Al Jazeera English
@AJEnglish
Pre-dawn US airstrike at Baghdad airport kills head of Iran's elite al-Quds force, General Qassem Soleimani aje.io/zhqrt
The Pentagon confirms killing of General Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, saying strike was carried out at the direction of President Donald Trump aje.io/kyasf
Who is General Qassem Soleimani, Iran's elite Quds force leader? aje.io/9azyu
Read 29 tweets
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QuickTake by Bloomberg
@QuickTake
BREAKING: Rockets have been fired at Baghdad airport, causing multiple casualties
JUST IN: Gen. Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds force, has been killed in an airstrike, according to Iraqi state TV and officials
UPDATE: The deputy head of Iraq’s para-military forces and head of Iran-linked Kataib Hezbollah militias, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was also killed in the attack at Baghdad airport, state TV reports
Read 43 tweets
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#WeBackCorbyn🌹#JC4PM2019🌹
@ChampagneDosser
#Thread

This is not my tweet but perfectly reflects why NO ONE should vote @Conservatives if they believe in democracy.

Just to be clear, if you vote Tory or you avoid voting Labour because of Corbyn then read this.
Just to be clear, if you vote Tory or you avoid voting Labour because of Corbyn then read this.

"Can we all just take a moment here, take a breath, stop thinking about Brexit, and the NHS, and taxes, and student loans, and focus on what has actually happened in the last week?
Tories, led by an unelected PM, pretended to be a fact checking site in order to dupe the public into believing their lies.
They published inaccurate figures from the opposition's manifesto, before that manifesto even existed despite international pressure to stop doing so.
Read 7 tweets

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