[Thread] There are so many angles to #Soleimani’s death that it will take time to grasp the full picture of it. But let’s try to look at a number of issues :
1/ The event : #Soleimani was one of the most important actors of today’s Middle East politics. His killing by the US is the most significant event in the region in recent years. Twitter tells you analysts are in shock : “we enter unchartered territories”.
3/ The man: the best profile I have read is here in 2013 but he only grew in importance afterwards.
newyorker.com/magazine/2013/…
newyorker.com/magazine/2013/…
4/ The military leader: He is responsible for covert ops killing US troops in Iraq, arming Hezbollah and Syria to move the threat closer to the Israeli border, as well as providing Baghdad’s defense against ISIS in 2014. Bio here by @Ali_H_Soufan 
5/ The dark legend: #Soleimani became the embodiment of Shia “resistance” and asymmetric warfare against the US. He slowly made more public appearances on the battleground, more public statements and became a meme icon.
6/ The Iranian leader : hard to compare him with any West. official coz he had such a unique mil and pol role. He represents Iran’s “deep state”, w/ direct access to the Supreme leader, who called him a “living martyre”. To have a sense of local support:
7/ The strike : drone strike on two vehicles. Sophisticated but the real masterpiece is the intel part: knowing #Soleimani’s whereabouts is supposed to be impossible. It’s even crazy that Soleimani, Muhandis and other VIP were in the same car.
8/ The last ep.: i/ attack on US base in Iraq, killing a US contractor ii/ US striked Iran-backed Kataeb Hezbollah’s camp iii/ Iran-backed militias attacked US emb iv/ US strike on Soleimani is a major response to an attempt to symbolically and physically push US out of Iraq.
9/ Last months: since the US withdrawal from JCPoA, Washington and Tehran have escalated, rhetorically, then concretely through US sanctions and Iranian counter provocations, esp. since May 2019 with a number of incidents in the strait of Hormuz and Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia.
10/ Escalation or deterrence: strike is significant coz US sent mixed signals abt milit response. Trump wanted no war but hAdmin did not want to negotiate with Iran so the “max pressure policy” had no landing zone. Actors were doubting US willingness to “restore deterrence”.
11/ Redline : the death of a US contractor and the targeting of a US base seemed to have been the trigger for the op because the US and Trump himself made clear this was a redline.
12/ US History w/ Iran: the targeting of the US embassy in Bagdad reminded everybody in DC about how the storming of the US embassy in Teheran and the hostage crisis in 1979 ended the Carter presidency. Pres. Trump probably did not want to entertain any comparison.
13/ US politics: this move distracts attention from impeach and Trump wants to show he is tough and that US superpower should not be challenged. Hard to verify but Khamenei’s own tweet might have played a role.
14/ Iran’s reaction: there will be consequences but too soon to know how and where. Risk is an even bigger escalation with casualties all over the region. Iran cannot really sustain a conventional war vs. US but has a wide spectrum of other options, esp. against US allies.
15/ Soleimani’s succession: hard to replace a mythical figure but not the head of a force. The IRGC is a sophisticated apparatus. Soleimani’s deputy Esmail Qaani has already taken over and the structure will survive Soleimani. ndtv.com/world-news/ira…
16/ #Iraq: this comes after Soleimani handled personally the institutional crisis created by the massive demonstrations against the Iraqi Gov. This might rebalance internal negotiations by weakening Iranian loyalists but only if the US uses momentum to engage in local politics.
17/ #Syria : Soleimani poured up to 60k mercenaries and spec ops in Syria to save Assad and was instrumental in convincing Putin to support him. His death won’t change policy coz it remains a Russian priority. Might rebalance triangle relations between Assad-Iran-Russia.
18/ #Lebanon : a high ranking Hezbollah official was killed in the strike and the ongoing institutional turmoil in Lebanon has already weakened Hezbollah’s position. They might escalate as well but they lost an important ally.
19/ US follow-up: for better or worse the US Administration has probably regained some hard power street credibility in the Middle East but the real issue is whether it can or wants to use it to shape political outcomes beyond showing strength.
20/ Regional picture: countries where Soleimani was the most active are facing challenges to cope with geopolit enviro and social crisis. Reactions to S’s death will have to be factored in, in an enviro where it’s not just Iran vs. US but abt. complex local and reg competitions.
21/ #JCPoA: on the short run nego seem unlikely but Soleimani was also a headliner opposed to the deal and Iran might also get the message than US has a bigger firepower in case of escalation. Nego options therefore have to stay open for before or after next escalation. [END]
