Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Rouhani has announced that Russia will provide Iran a $5bn loan. Unless the loan obligates Iran to remain in full JCPOA compliance, it will dramatically undermine Europe’s position on the deal. If it does include those obligations, Russia may achieve what Europe could not.
Consider the optics of Macron seeking permission from the Treasury Dept. to provide Iran $15bn in credit so that Iran stops reducing its JCPOA compliance, failing to do so, and Russia giving Iran $5bn anyway. A profound humiliation for Europe.
Finally, this assumes the loan materializes. There is reason to be skeptical given the history of Russia-Iran economic ties.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @yarbatman see all

Profile picture
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
1. @IanTalley, what exactly is the journalistic value of this article? Did you ask Brian Hook any questions about the goal behind starving Iran of foreign currency? Did you ask about the possible humanitarian impact? This reads like an FDD press release.
wsj.com/articles/iran-…
2. You failed to explain to readers that in May of this year the Trump admin froze the use of escrow accounts tied to the cancelled oil waivers. The waivers ensured that Iran could only use of its oil revenues for the purchases of food + medicine. Treasury had *direct* oversight.
3. Did Brian Hook explain why the Trump administration had decided that rather than tightly control the use of Iran's foreign currency reserves through this proven system it was seeking to deny their use outright, even for humanitarian trade?
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
1. There is a misunderstanding about Iran's decision to cut fuel subsidies. The move is not a knee-jerk reaction to sanctions pressure on the government budget. What Rouhani announced was what the IMF advised in its 2018 Article IV consultations. It's solid fiscal policy.
2. The IMF estimated that fuel subsidies cost 1.6% of Iran's GDP in 2017/2018. It is a really inefficient means to support the welfare of ordinary Iranians--cash transfers are much better. By lowering the subsidy, Rouhani is creating fiscal space to expand cash transfers.
3. Seeing regime change advocates share videos of fuel protests is wonderfully ironic if you consider that any new government in Iran would face exactly the same fiscal conundrum now facing the Islamic Republic and would be advised to do exactly what they just did. See here:
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
1. A critical line in Rouhani's latest speech:

"We may be able to survive without engagement and relations with the world, but how will we attain growth and development? If exports cease, if banks are blocked, if we cannot communicate, we will be unable to attain development."
2. Rouhani spoke to university students to mark the beginning of the academic year. It is a reminder of the political vision that got him elected, and which he has largely failed to realize because of internal opposition and the reimposition of sanctions.
president.ir/fa/111831
3. But the reason this line is important is that it gets at the fundamental political debate in Iran today. Sanctions don't pose an existential threat for the regime, rather they impose an opportunity cost: forgone development.
Read 17 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
20. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?

#Hypocrites #DoubleStandards #Liars #Warlords #USRealTerrorists
Wrong US policies in the Middle East. Sanctions against Iran. Sanctions used by the USA as a war weapon🤨👇🏼
1. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1116293…
Read 170 tweets
Profile picture
Russian Platform #HandsOffVenezuela 🇻🇪
@RussiaConnects
RUSSIA CONNECTS

The West, being overtaken by China & those allied with it has repeatedly signaled its intent to weaken those rising to threaten its continued ability to be World Control HQ.

The East has largely until recently hoped for a change of heart & a return to sanity.
RUSSIA CONNECTS

The East doesn't wish conflict, it wants stability, strong relationships, security & trade.

The West has shown time after time its malign intention, to disrupt & destabilize, creating chaos, organizing provocations, sanctioning, sabotaging, ever threatening war.
RUSSIA CONNECTS

Color revolutions have become the West’s favored means of undermining nations & replacing governments.

The fomented insurrection occurring now in Hong Kong is another example of its cynical attempt to generate chaos with a view to furthering western aims.
Read 18 tweets
Profile picture
Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز
@RymMomtaz
Sustained French diplomacy on Iran JCPoA to de-escalate
Macron:
-discussed with Trump on D-Day + Jul1 call and today
-spoke to Rouhani Jun 25+Jul6
His diplo adviser Emmanuel Bonne was in Iran June 19, going back tmrw, Wednesday
+ministerial and E3 contacts
Next deadline: July 15
Bonne reportedly to meet Shamkhani in Tehran. #JCPoA #France #Iran
Noteworthy how Iranians choosing to publicize visit by Macron’s diplo adviser Bonne. Iranian journos reporting Bonne told Shamkhani he doesnt come as mediator, not carrying a message from US+that Shamkhani said Iran’s reduction of commitments irreversible. Photos from IRNA/ISNA.
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Adnan Tabatabai
@A_Tabatabai
(1) In my latest, I discuss how #Europe could be able to keep #Iran in the deal, and the #JCPOA alive. progressivepost.eu/what-it-will-t…
(2) #Europe must reject notion pushed by #Washington and its allies that being pro-JCPOA means being pro-Iran. Also, #Europe must reject narrative suggesting it puts wedge in transatlantic relations by trying to safeguard JCPOA.
(3) #Iran can be kept in the deal if its economic, political and security dividend makes it conclude it’s better off with the deal. While economic dividend is part of #JCPOA terms, and the other two aren’t, they will play a role in current situation.
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
LTG Jerry Boykin
@GenBoykin
#Iran has obviously not fully considered #Russia. Russia does not want a war between #Israel and #Iran in #Syria. So the Russians are now trying to mediate between the two nations. Russia has too much at stake in Syria. #SyriaStrikes #middleeast #tcot #ccot
#War between #Iran and #Syria would draw the #UnitedStatesOfAmerica into the fight and that would be a disaster for #Russia. Believe it or not, Russia does not want to tangle militarily with the US or Israel in Syria. #SyriaStrikes #middleeast #tcot #ccot
Scenario 1:
#Iran will launch another strike but it may come from #Hezbollah in #Lebanon or #Hamas in #Gaza. Or it could be another attack from #Syria into #Israel. My guess is that it will be a #terrorattack. #SyriaStrikes #middleeast #tcot #ccot #airstrike
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Jeff Seldin
@jseldin
US needs low yield nuclear weapons, @US_Stratcom Cmdr @usairforce Gen John Hyten tells #SASC hearing - "That capability's a deterrence weapon to respond the threat that #Russia in particular is portraying"
"The #Russia|n doctrine will be to use a low-yield nuclear weapon on the battlefield in case of a conventional over-match with an adversary" per Gen Hyten, citing Vladimir Putin's own words
"Our defense is deterrent capability" per @US_Stratcom's Gen Hyten, when asked about threat from #Russia #China #hypersonic missiles "We don't have any defense that could deny the deployment of such a weapon against us"
Read 16 tweets

Trending hashtags

#EU3 #Iran #Germany #BreakingsNews #WarCrimes #NuclearDeal #Al_Raqqa #Dollar #Iraq #Islah #Australia #UnitedStates #USsanctions #Lebanon #Aramco #Gibraltar #UN #Iranians #SeaofOman #Hasakah #NoWarWithIran #1988Massacre #Smuggling #BarackObama #ForeignForces
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!