Thread by @DoubleEph

Wow, I was here minding my business when I got this threat. Now I have to do it to protect my family!

Thread!

One thing I can say with a high degree of confidence after immersing myself in 19th century Nigeria is this - Violence does not work.

But that has not stopped it determining the kind of political development Nigeria has had

As I’ve said before - the last 2 decades since the return of democracy is the first time in Nigeria’s history since 1804 that political advancement has required a *different* set of skills. That is, 20yrs versus 200yrs. A tall order

If you’ve been following @elnathan_john you’d have noticed that he tweets a lot about Ningi (not the one in Australia, the one in present day Bauchi). It is only now I’m coming to appreciate what such a town means as a symbol of Nigeria’s political development

For his Ningi, I will raise him Tsibiri, in present day Niger Republic. Essentially these were places were people who were never quite defeated - diehards - set up shop and from there tormented the authorities. Tsibiri defeated 3 Sultans of Sokoto back to back.

There are many places like this. The authorities will use violence and scorched earth tactics. They will get the job done about 90% but that 10% will escape somewhere and restart the clock as if nothing happened

But here’s the challenge - that it doesn’t work doesn’t mean the next guy won’t try the exact same thing. Sometimes it is done cynically knowing it is only a short term solution but as a king you just want to flex for a bit

Where you have violence as the leadership’s tool of choice in getting things done, it automatically means that *other* options have a lower status and there is no reward for anyone to invest in those skills

In short, someone who can persuade people would not have had a useful political career in Nigeria...until the last 20yrs. With democracy now ‘sticking’, the game has changed. There is now reward (and there will be a lot more in future) to developing persuasion skills

Here in Britain, one of the amusing things the punditocracy like to moan about is that British politics is dominated by people who honed their craft in university debating unions. As if that’s the worst thing in the world

Prof @DeirdreMcClosk likes to say that persuasion is roughly 30% of the American economy and nothing gets done unless someone changes their mind. You have a multi billion legal industry built entirely on persuasion

With democracy, you have to talk. You have to develop the skills to persuade people (ok, I agree that Nigerian politicians will still use rice and money for a while but even that one is another dead cat that is still bouncing).

If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic about Nigeria’s future it is that - after two centuries, the country has quietly and slowly abandoned a failed leadership tool.

The status of persuasion is now increasing so if you invest in developing that skill now, rewards dey

Caveat: For the ‘yeah, but’ people.

1) This is a slow process still happening and might still take some time. But it is undoubtedly happening

2) I only used the north as that’s the part of Nigeria I’ve been studying. The pattern is common across Nigeria

P.S This raises some interesting questions for today. How do you solve a murderous problem like Boko Haram? It’s a tough one and I will say I don’t know what the answer is. All that can be said is that violence cannot be the only tool on the table.