"It would be silly to rule out 4-5C warming by end of the century in the absence of meaningful climate policy given all of the uncertainties we are AWARE of. What keeps me up at night are those we're not.."
~ Dr Michael Mann Dec 2019
Let's discuss the latest climate models.
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~ Dr Michael Mann Dec 2019
Let's discuss the latest climate models.
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2°C by 2035- 2045 has seemed likely to me for a while now.
Some of the latest models suggest 2°C by 2040 no matter what we do as far as I can tell, but I don't know how many models say that (is this information easily available anywhere)?
Thread:
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Some of the latest models suggest 2°C by 2040 no matter what we do as far as I can tell, but I don't know how many models say that (is this information easily available anywhere)?
Thread:
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This article called 'A 3C World Is Now “Business as Usual”' has people feeling that scientists say if we move away from business as usual we stay well below 3C: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
But this seems to really clash with the new models (not to mention today's oil war fears).
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But this seems to really clash with the new models (not to mention today's oil war fears).
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Surely we can't wait until the already delayed 2021 IPCC report to discuss the staggering implications of a higher ECS?!
'A higher ECS means a greater likelihood of reaching higher levels of global warming – even with deeper emissions cuts.' ⚠️
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carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why…
'A higher ECS means a greater likelihood of reaching higher levels of global warming – even with deeper emissions cuts.' ⚠️
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carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why…
'Higher warming would allow less time to adapt and mean a greater likelihood of passing climate “tipping points” – such as thawing of permafrost, which would further accelerate warming.'
This, of course, is a terrifying thought.
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carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why…
This, of course, is a terrifying thought.
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carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why…
Here's the original tweet for those interested. You can trace back some useful discussion.
Only a few, specialised journalists have covered this, but it should be dominating public discourse, along with all elements of ecological/climate breakdown.
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Only a few, specialised journalists have covered this, but it should be dominating public discourse, along with all elements of ecological/climate breakdown.
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Bonus:
This is an important distinction. The reality is that government actions and plans are leading us into catastrophe, never mind all the positive upbeat takes on policies.
This is an important distinction. The reality is that government actions and plans are leading us into catastrophe, never mind all the positive upbeat takes on policies.
CORRECTION
the climate model project is a year late, and some of the 100+ models won't be ready for the 2021 meeting (which has not been delayed).
the climate model project is a year late, and some of the 100+ models won't be ready for the 2021 meeting (which has not been delayed).
