Thread by @DLineCap

On Monday, we hosted our Inaugural Round Table Prime ft @DlineCap CEO Jeff Gundlach, FPA Advisors managing partner Steve Romick, @Quillintel CEO @DimartinoBooth, Rosenberg Research chief economist @EconGuyRosie, @Biancoresearch’s Jim Bianco, and Evercore ISI chairman Ed Hyman.

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch Moderating the event was our very own Jeff Sherman, @DlineCap Deputy CIO and @ShermanShowPod host, who got DoubleLine’s Inaugural Round Table Prime underway by posing the question:

“What do you think is in the cards from the central banks in 2020”?

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod Chief Economist & Strategist of Rosenberg Research, @EconGuyRosie, was first to the task, responding:

“I think all of the central banks will remain extremely accommodative… although the Fed would like to not have to ease policy… I think that is going to be challenged”

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod .@Quillintel CEO @DiMartinoBooth goes on to explain how Chairman Powell has completely broken the precedent of the @federalreserve being “both arsonist and firefighter,” and thinks they remain focused on credit market volatility in 2020.

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve Jim Bianco @BiancoResearch responds to Jeff Sherman’s question of why Powell continued to press rate hikes and balance sheet unwinding in 2018:

“Because he was new and he was not a Ph.D, and I think he was trying to take what was already established with the Fed and continue it”

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve Jeff Gundlach, @DLineCap CEO, believes Powell wants “to say as little as possible” and is basically “Just following the market at this point."

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve Evercore ISI chairman Edward Hyman adds that monetary policy, citing Milton Friedman, works with a 1-2 year lag & has a strong feeling that:

“The economy this year will do better than expected because of what the Fed did last year, and in addition increase their balance sheet”.

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve Tune in tomorrow as we drop the first of three videos with our esteemed guests, covering the global macro economy and outlook!

DoubleLine’s Inaugural Round Table Prime 2020

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod .@Quillintel's @Dimartinobooth adds to that, "I think we have a very easy Fed, unwillingly. I don't think Powell wants to be seen as helping the presidential election in any way, shape or form, but that's not where his focus is. His focus is on credit market volatility.”

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve "What Powell is looking to do is to hope things hang together...and keep rates on hold the entire year. And the bond market has ratified that point of view. The 2y treasury yield is consistent with the Fed funds rate being unchanged in quite some time.” - @DiMartinoBooth

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod Rosenberg Research's @EconguyRosie adds his thoughts on inflation:

“I hear it all the time about how everybody believes inflation is just around the corner, and yet it’s never really around the corner. You can’t just say, well, I think inflation is going to be going up.”

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve .@EconguyRosie favorite gauge of inflation?

Core PCE Deflator

"Market based, so much financial services, health services, computer, rents, actually… 3 months ago was running at 1.7, is down to 1.4... indicates to me where overall inflation is going in the next little while.”

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve Continuing on the inflation theme, @EconguyRosie believes that:

“The big story in inflation is velocity is contracting right now at an alarming rate in the last few months.”

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve “We are in the middle of a political firestorm in this country, & that's a slippery slope if you veer toward the 0 bound, because you get to talking about not bailing out banks but bailing out people. Powell is highly aware of not becoming a political tool.” - @DiMartinoBooth

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve "As far as this whole not QE thing, I think this is an attempt to say that we are not manipulating markets; that somehow QE is a market manipulation thing, but we are not manipulating markets. But it fits the very definition that Bernanke gave us in 2009" - @biancoresearch

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @ShermanShowPod @federalreserve .@biancoresearch on deeply negative rates - "If you unleash the caps and allow them to start assessing severe negative interest rates on the deposit basis then you're going to have a revolution in the streets that the banks are taking my money; taking my money in a serious way."

@Quillintel @DiMartinoBooth @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch DoubleLine & Jeffrey Gundlach proudly present segment 1 of our Inaugural Round Table Prime 2020: Global Macro Economy & Outlook: