if there’s a prize for culture warriors, i nominate opinionista @parnellpalme, for squeezing “greenies”, “costly renewables”, “nuclear” and “virtue signalling” before she even got to her opening paragraph.
…and what a lot of 🐂💩 followed! THREAD 👇
afr.com/policy/energy-…
…and what a lot of 🐂💩 followed! THREAD 👇
afr.com/policy/energy-…
.@parnellpalme notes germany is “expected to fail the majority of its own 2020 energy transition targets” but neglects to say:
• their goals are very ambitious
• they're way ahead of schedule in the electricity sector — the entire focus of her article.
• their goals are very ambitious
• they're way ahead of schedule in the electricity sector — the entire focus of her article.
germany hit their "35% renewables by 2020" target *three* years early, and haven't stopped there — they recently bumped up their target to 65% by 2030.
i reckon they'll make it.
i reckon they'll make it.
thinktank @AgoraEW estimates german emissions came down to ~811MtCO₂e in 2019, a 35% decrease from 1990.
meanwhile australian emissions are down just 12% from 1990 if we include the (dubious) land sector… and *up* 31% otherwise.
they're doing a lot better than we are.
meanwhile australian emissions are down just 12% from 1990 if we include the (dubious) land sector… and *up* 31% otherwise.
they're doing a lot better than we are.
.@parnellpalme emotively claims germany's "transition process has made itself more reliant on gas from putin’s russia".
(how do we feel about getting most of our oil from the middle east? hmmm...)
but firstly… is germany's more dependent on gas?
(how do we feel about getting most of our oil from the middle east? hmmm...)
but firstly… is germany's more dependent on gas?
🇩🇪 certainly burned more gas for electricity last year than the 7 prior years, but about the same as the 15 year average.
last year, gas provided 10% of germany's power.
what proportion did gas provide of australia's national electricity market?
also 10%. (more in WA)
last year, gas provided 10% of germany's power.
what proportion did gas provide of australia's national electricity market?
also 10%. (more in WA)
.@parnellpalme would have us to believe that energy companies invest in renewables to "green up their image" — no, initially the did it to fulfil the requirements of john howard's mandatory renewable energy target.
now they invest because its the cheapest way to add capacity.
now they invest because its the cheapest way to add capacity.
on to nuclear… @parnellpalme often spruiks nuclear, but doesn't understand the economic reasons why it's a non-starter here.
the 2016 SA nuclear royal commission was clear about that. the recent federal inquiry found (again) there's no role for current nuclear technology here.
the 2016 SA nuclear royal commission was clear about that. the recent federal inquiry found (again) there's no role for current nuclear technology here.
one little example…
the only nuke under construction in north america is on track to cost A$40bn.
that's about the same value as the entire balance sheets of @aglenergy, @originenergy and @EnergyAustralia… combined.
(applied for permit in 2006, completion expected ~2022.)
the only nuke under construction in north america is on track to cost A$40bn.
that's about the same value as the entire balance sheets of @aglenergy, @originenergy and @EnergyAustralia… combined.
(applied for permit in 2006, completion expected ~2022.)
.@parnellpalme goes on to talk about "small modular reactors".
the company furthest along with this technology, @NuScale_Power, *might* have a full demonstration pilot by end of this decade.
if all goes well, it *might* be available here in the mid-late 2030s.
the company furthest along with this technology, @NuScale_Power, *might* have a full demonstration pilot by end of this decade.
if all goes well, it *might* be available here in the mid-late 2030s.
don't get me wrong — i'm not anti-nuclear. i am optimistic realist, and care about the truth.
the truth is there's not a hope in hell of nuclear playing a significant role in our grid in the next 15-20 years.
forget politics, it's economics & engineering that stand in the way.
the truth is there's not a hope in hell of nuclear playing a significant role in our grid in the next 15-20 years.
forget politics, it's economics & engineering that stand in the way.
so, if you're going to take the climate emergency seriously — which @parnellpalme supports, right? right? — how do we reduce electricity sector emissions?
renewables, of course.
but how?
renewables, of course.
but how?
thanks for asking. i point you to @AEMO_Media.
they've got ~60 people in their long range forecasting section. they've been forecasting grid scenarios for years.
(side question: how does someone write a column about our energy challenges without being across this body of work?)
they've got ~60 people in their long range forecasting section. they've been forecasting grid scenarios for years.
(side question: how does someone write a column about our energy challenges without being across this body of work?)
their latest work has a "step change" scenario that drops electricity sector emissions from ~140Mtpa to ~20Mtpa.
emissions down ~85% over the next 20 years.
costs only marginally than the business as usual investment.
the lights stay on.
aemo.com.au/Electricity/Na…
emissions down ~85% over the next 20 years.
costs only marginally than the business as usual investment.
the lights stay on.
aemo.com.au/Electricity/Na…
.@parnellpalme speaks of waiting for renewables to reach maturity before this can happen — but AEMO's boffins (with significant industry engagement) have shown that rapid decarbonisation is possible with today's technology.
so when do we start?
we already have. the following chart (units = TWh) shows that wind & solar have been pushing out coal over the past decade, without increasing gas consumption…
we already have. the following chart (units = TWh) shows that wind & solar have been pushing out coal over the past decade, without increasing gas consumption…
that all said, culture warriors will keep on culture warring.
maybe we can harness the passion of australia's nuke spruikers for good?
for some, the following might seem faustian, but hey, i reckon it'd be worth it.
/FIN
#auspol
maybe we can harness the passion of australia's nuke spruikers for good?
for some, the following might seem faustian, but hey, i reckon it'd be worth it.
/FIN
#auspol
