Thread by @ClaudiaGazzini

Thread
1/9 I have read many people online dismissing Berlin #Libya conference as inconsequential in light of recent inflow of weapons and fighters, and last night’s bombing on Tripoli airport.

2/9 Nobody wants to deny that there is a real risk that war around Tripoli could soon restart. If it does, both sides will most certainly find a host of valid reasons (in their view) to blame each other for the breakdown of the current tenuous ceasefire.

3/9 The debate should not be on whether Berlin succeeded or not. What is needed is a reflection on what the next steps should be to build on the commitment to end the conflict that international stakeholders, many of whom have fuelled the war, made in Berlin.

4/9 In this @crisisgroup statement on the Berlin Conference we outline some steps ahead 👇👇

crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

5/9 A first step would be for the Security Council to rapidly turn the Berlin declaration into a binding resolution calling for a cessation of hostilities and the launch of multi-track negotiations.

6/9 Signatories should bolster monitoring and enforcement of the arms embargo through more frequent reporting by the UN Panel of Experts as well as reinvigoration of the EU’s maritime Operation Sophia.

7/9 The UAE, Egypt and Russia – Haftar supporters – and Turkey, which backs the Tripoli government, will need to stop arms deliveries to Libyan factions and instead press their allies to agree to a ceasefire in UN-led negotiations.

8/9 Libyan factions and their foreign allies will need to put aside maximalist ambitions and stop seeking on the battlefield what they cannot obtain at the negotiating table. They should accept that ending this war will require all sides to accept less than what they wish for.

9/ Resuming fighting would turn each side’s stated goal – restoring the Libyan state, for Haftar backers, and ensuring a democratic Libya, for those rallying behind Tripoli – into a chimera, while deepening the population’s suffering.