Twelve foreign leaders + EU, UN, AU & Arab League attended Sunday’s #Libya conference in Berlin, which led to a 55-point final communique.
What chance does it have of ending fighting on the ground? A thread. 1/9
What chance does it have of ending fighting on the ground? A thread. 1/9
2/ The communique called on rival Libyan factions & foreign backers to:
➜ redouble their efforts for a sustained suspension of hostilities
➜ fully respect and implement the UN arms embargo
➜ support a 3-track (political, military, economic) UN-backed negotiation process
➜ redouble their efforts for a sustained suspension of hostilities
➜ fully respect and implement the UN arms embargo
➜ support a 3-track (political, military, economic) UN-backed negotiation process
3/ But what was missing? There was
➜ no formal ceasefire
➜ no cessation of hostilities
➜ no discussion of sanctions if outside actors violate the arms embargo
It seems Berlin was little more than a statement of intent by all sides to work towards de-escalation.
➜ no formal ceasefire
➜ no cessation of hostilities
➜ no discussion of sanctions if outside actors violate the arms embargo
It seems Berlin was little more than a statement of intent by all sides to work towards de-escalation.
4/ Rival Libyan leaders Faiez Serraj and Khalifa Haftar were both in Berlin.
But they did not attend the summit and nor did they undersign the final Berlin declaration.
But they did not attend the summit and nor did they undersign the final Berlin declaration.
5/ Instead, according to UN and German diplomats, both Haftar and Serraj separately agreed to appoint their representatives to a 5+5 military commission that is supposed to discuss details of the ceasefire in meetings to be held in Geneva in late Jan.
6/ If there is genuine commitment, the convening of such a commission would be a step towards de-escalating. Last week in Moscow Haftar did not even agree to appoint his reps to this.
But often in Libya, agreeing to form a committee is short-hand for procrastinating.
But often in Libya, agreeing to form a committee is short-hand for procrastinating.
7/ Likewise, it is doubtful that Berlin communique will translate into a UNSC resolution since there is not much document that would actually warrant a resolution.
8/ UNSG Guterres said that the Berlin meeting helped avert a full scale regional war in #Libya.
But some fighting has resumed in Tripoli and pro-Haftar factions have closed almost all oil terminals. Up to 2000 pro-Turkey Syrian fighters are believed to be on the ground.
But some fighting has resumed in Tripoli and pro-Haftar factions have closed almost all oil terminals. Up to 2000 pro-Turkey Syrian fighters are believed to be on the ground.
9/9 In Tripoli, supporters of both sides seem skeptical that the truce will hold and the military & political talks will succeed.
There is simply no trust. All seem to be bracing themselves for a new round of hostilities.
There is simply no trust. All seem to be bracing themselves for a new round of hostilities.
