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Remember:

1.3°C today
1.5°C by 2026
2°C by 2038
3°C by 2047
4°C by 2055

'By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by 4°C unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now'.

Billions dead at 3.5°C.

This couldn't be true.

Could it?
4C: 2055 - 2095 looks likely.

'temperature rises caused by greenhouse gas emissions are expected to trigger dangerous feedback loops, which will release ever increasing amounts of greenhouse gases'

"the poor will struggle to survive"

Climate justice now.newscientist.com/article/dn1786…
Peer-reviewed science: warming could 'exceed 3.5–4C by 2050':
pnas.org/content/114/39…
Some scientists suggest fewer than one billion people could survive on a 4°C Earth.

👇
climatecodered.org/2019/08/at-4c-…
☝️
We're witnessing non-linear change.

2°C is unavoidable. When will it hit?

msnbc.com/msnbc/climate-…

Emissions are far higher, and still increasing, 6 years after M. Mann suggested 2036 as a threshold for environmental ruin.

New models show 2°C by 2040.

3°C appears inevitable given current levels of CO2.

Could we delay this until after 2100?

It would take an extraordinary global transformation.

'Governments are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C'

productiongap.org/2019report/
Today, in 2020, we're at 1.3°C at least (see article). According to Paul Beckwith we're already at 1.4°C.

The increase per decade would currently appear to be ~0.3C, but the trend seems to be towards acceleration.

vox.com/energy-and-env…
3 - 5°C:

'if countries follow through with their current fossil fuel production plans, the world will be on track to warm more than 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) by 2100.'

('currently on track to exceed the 2 degree path by 17% by 2030 and 36% by 2040') ⚠️
yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/11/pollut…
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
If we continue our current level of greenhouse gas emissions, the climate in 2030 will resemble the 2C - 4C mid-Pliocene.

"It's very possible that both ecological systems and human systems may fail to adapt rapidly enough, with devastating consequences."
nbc-2.com/story/39618018…
'we are marching inexorably towards a “point of no return,” into territory that is unknown for the human race'

climate.nasa.gov/climate_resour…
Earth will warm between 2°C and 6°C within decades.

It took the planet 5,000 years to warm 5°C when global warming happened at various times in the past two million years.

The predicted rate of warming for the next century is at least 20 times faster.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Globa…
Read 5 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Remember:

1. Arctic sea ice gone by 2025
2. Antarctic ice collapse starts 2026
3. Coral reefs dead by 2027
4. Rainforests dying by 2028
5. 4 billion people lack water: 2029
6. Megacities uninhabitable by 2039
7. Most species extinct by 2049

This couldn't be true.

Could it?
“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75-80% of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years

“Can we lose 75-80% of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no"forbes.com/sites/jeffmcma…
Rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica beginning this decade is quite possible.

“marine ice-sheet instability” has haunted climate scientists for the past four decades.

theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
Read 8 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Remember:

1. new climate models show 2C by 2039

2. nightmare feedbacks have been underestimated

3. WMO now implies that 1.5C by 2029 is likely

4. more climate deniers/delayers in office than ever - all plan to zoom over 2C

Things aren't as bad as we thought.

They're worse.
We can't rule out vast human misery and the extinction catastrophe of heading over 5C by the 2090s.

(nobody can know which species could survive 5C+)

Michael Mann feels 2.5C is achievable. I don't really see it myself, but with immediate action & luck..?
michaelmann.net/content/story-…
Newspapers won't talk about 2C by 2035-2040.

Funny that.

Read 4 tweets

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Joshua Wong 黃之鋒 😷
@joshuawongcf
[Climate change & HK - China is reacting similarly to both]

1/ @GretaThunberg was named #TIMEPOY by the @TIME. She's a Swedish Schoolgirl that inspired #FridaysForFuture against climate change. She's regarded as the figure of the power of youth, and inspired many, including me.
2/ I applaud for her statement “We can’t just continue living as if there was no tomorrow, because there is a tomorrow.” There is a future where Greta and I will live long enough to see, and we are responsible to shape it into a desirable one.
3/ When world cheer & appalled for youth standing up against threats of climate change or dictatorship, we actually all play a role in the fights. No man is an island. We 're all living here today, and we will be living here tmr as well. It's not only up to the youngsters.
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JesseJenkins
@JesseJenkins
In 2008, #Massachusetts stepped into a global #climate leadership position w/passage of the landmark Global Warming Solutions Act. This year, it has the opportunity to renew that leadership and rejoin the climate vanguard by passing H.3983, the "2050 Roadmap Act." A thread... 1/
Today I delivered a letter to @RepMichlewitz @SpeakerDeLeo & Sen Prez @karenspilka from 37 academic scholars & experts on #energy & #climatechange calling attention to the 2050 Roadmap Bill, which would put #Massachusetts on a path to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. 2/
The #Massachussetts 2050 Roadmap Bill, sponsored by @JoanMeschino (👏) + supported by 59 legislators, provides a timely update to the regulatory framework established by the Global Warming Solutions Act and a critical opportunity to renew the commonwealth’s climate leadership. 3/
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Robert Kroese
@robkroese
If I were a moderator at the climate town hall, I'd just keep asking increasingly absurd questions just to see if anyone ever questions the premise. "Would you support reparations paid in advance for the climate change hurricanes that will disproportionately affect trans people?"
"Given that larger animals generate more greenhouse gases, do you support federal funding for genetic research into reducing the size of the average human being by 70%?"
"As you know, the last existential crisis we as a species faced was the hole in the ozone layer, which could only be repaired by the Highlander. Do you support funding additional Highlanders to deal with the current climate crisis?"
Read 5 tweets
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EndClimateSilence.org
@EndClimtSilence
So last month @NOAAClimate announced that July 2019 was the hottest month in all of human history.

The world is sailing into uncharted territory, where humans have never existed.

So how did the television networks report this news? Mostly?

THEY DIDN'T

*thread*
@NOAAClimate @LesterHoltNBC @NBCNightlyNews, produced by @Matthewfrucci, failed to mention the historic and hugely important fact that July was the hottest month in human history. They performed full on climate silence.

#EndClimateSilence

2/n
@NOAAClimate @LesterHoltNBC @NBCNightlyNews @Matthewfrucci To our surprise @jaketapper @TheLeadCNN also failed to mention the historic and hugely important fact that July was the hottest month in human history. He also performed full on climate silence.

#EndClimateSilence

3/n
Read 14 tweets
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Adam
@Khanoisseur
1. Thrust of Pletka's full comment was really about how climate change explanations appear to some people to be politicized or agenda-driven, and this is partly because people are also told by scientists that the planet has always fluctuated between warming and cooling periods.
2. So how do you help such people reconcile earth's historic cooling-warming periods with what is happening now, which is warming at a much faster rate due to, scientists note, human activity, specifically burning fossil fuels and farming to support earth's population explosion?
3. The positive in all this is that Trump, Santorum, Pletka and others who were painted as climate change skeptics are coming around to believing that the planet is warming. Now they have doubts about how much humans can do to stop this warming.
Read 8 tweets
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The Royal Society
@royalsociety
The UK could be #CarbonNeutral by 2050, meeting its #ParisAgreement targets, according to a new report from The Royal Society and @RAEngNews. Here are 8 technologies and approaches that could be vital (a thread) royalsociety.org/greenhouse-gas…
Forestation – whether it’s replacing lost trees or creating new forests, this technique means more trees. Better management could remove as much as 12 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year.
Habitat restoration – 80% of the UK’s wetlands, peatlands & coastal habitats are considered to be in poor condition. Restoring these could prevent previously trapped carbon from escaping, & store up to 18 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare per year royalsociety.org/topics-policy/…
Read 10 tweets

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