Basic reproductive number estimated to be 2.13 by @gmleunghku. no. of epidemic cases will be doubled in 6.2 days. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus
20k cases are predicted in wuhan. if the asymptomatic cases and incubation period are also considered it would become 44k cases in wuhan.
under such model, lockdown of cities are predicted not to be very efficient and optimistic. Chongqing is predicted to be the next epicenter as the transportation from wuhan to chongqing is the heaviest.
if the model predicts correctly, local community outbreak might happen in other megapolis in china which will lead to more exported cases worldwide.
all the prediction based on the assumption of ‘under no public health measure is given’
all the prediction based on the assumption of ‘under no public health measure is given’
self sustaining #h2h spread is already present in major chinese cities.
cancellation of mass gathering, closure of schools and home office arrangement are examples of public health measures.
cancellation of mass gathering, closure of schools and home office arrangement are examples of public health measures.
