Thread by @Big_Headers

Dear Brexiteers,

You have got your Brexit.

Brexit is, for all practical purposes, over the line.

#GetBrexitDone

1/15

Except it was really #GetTheWithdrawalAgreementDone

But the marketing honchos at No 10 correctly realised they could never win an election with that strapline!

2/15

What you have ‘won’ at this precise moment in time, is the point of no return.

The Brexit process has only now properly started.

3/15

And doubtless you will say, thank you very much, I know that, that is exactly what I wanted.

4/15

But what follows this point of no return?

We have eleven months of steady state – being in the EU in all but name.

5/15

During those eleven months the stated intention of Johnson is to get a great deal.

6/15

But that cannot happen. Because, in order to negotiate, you need to have something to offer, in order to get something back.

You need to hold some cards.

But the UK now holds none.

7/15

The UK has now given everything away. Every single element of negotiating leverage.

8/15

OK – there are a few crumbs. We buy $35 billion of EU cars in the UK. But that is sadly just a crumb.

9/15

We won’t suddenly be able to make our own cars without access to the supply chain that exists across the EU. And that supply chain will come to a grinding halt in the event of no deal.

10/15

If you can find anything other than a crumb of negotiating leverage – please reply below.

11/15

And with the WTO – it will be even worse. The WTO, with Trump’s shenanigans, is a barely functioning organisation.

12/15

What are the chances of Johnson & team being able to negotiate anything that is a ‘really good deal’ for the UK before December 31st 2020?

It’s not a trick question.

The answer is zero.

Call me Nostradamus.

13/15

So, December 31st 2020, the UK throws food security, health and medicine supply, manufacturing capability, and all elements of trade with the EU under the bus, for a 'WTO' No Deal Brexit.

14/15

Or, the UK asks for a further extension of the transition period.

That’s it folks.

Well done.

You won.

15/15