After my chats with my Brexit voting family & friends at the weekend I discovered something both comforting & horrifying.
They’re no longer remotely interested in brexit. Some of them don’t even know we’re leaving on the 31st.
A soft Brexit is thus a distinct possibility.
They’re no longer remotely interested in brexit. Some of them don’t even know we’re leaving on the 31st.
A soft Brexit is thus a distinct possibility.
2/
Not only are many (most?) leave voters no longer interested - they seem remarkably indifferent to what it involves.
Could it be that Johnson will wait for dust to settle & then take the path of least resistance: to a lazy soft Brexit, plant a flag on top & declare victory?
Not only are many (most?) leave voters no longer interested - they seem remarkably indifferent to what it involves.
Could it be that Johnson will wait for dust to settle & then take the path of least resistance: to a lazy soft Brexit, plant a flag on top & declare victory?
3/
This would explain a lot of what is or rather is not happening right now. No new customs officials being trained for UK/Irish sea ports, no policy planning for RofO, tariffs or divergence.
Nothing is happening maybe as a Johnson soft Brexit means all this is unnecessary.
This would explain a lot of what is or rather is not happening right now. No new customs officials being trained for UK/Irish sea ports, no policy planning for RofO, tariffs or divergence.
Nothing is happening maybe as a Johnson soft Brexit means all this is unnecessary.
4/
Don’t think I’m being complacent but reviewing Johnson’s entire life shows that faced with any choice the one requiring the least effort is the one he always favours.
Could it be we’re headed for a “lazy brexit”?
Soft as possible but dressed/disguised in Union Jack bunting.
Don’t think I’m being complacent but reviewing Johnson’s entire life shows that faced with any choice the one requiring the least effort is the one he always favours.
Could it be we’re headed for a “lazy brexit”?
Soft as possible but dressed/disguised in Union Jack bunting.
5/
In 2024 will voters really vote Farage to demand a “proper Brexit” 4 years after we’ve actually left?
I can’t see it.
So what Johnson needs is a positive economic case to win the 2024 election - a brexit that didn’t cause the pain the “remainers said would happen”.
In 2024 will voters really vote Farage to demand a “proper Brexit” 4 years after we’ve actually left?
I can’t see it.
So what Johnson needs is a positive economic case to win the 2024 election - a brexit that didn’t cause the pain the “remainers said would happen”.
6/
What does Boris Johnson like?
Big bridges that never get built, flags, commemorative coins, Big Ben & pretty young girls.
What is he not known for?
Complex policy discussions, long term principle before short term fun, personal sacrifice.
Johnson’s Brexit will be a show.
What does Boris Johnson like?
Big bridges that never get built, flags, commemorative coins, Big Ben & pretty young girls.
What is he not known for?
Complex policy discussions, long term principle before short term fun, personal sacrifice.
Johnson’s Brexit will be a show.
7/
The thing about Brexit that many don’t get is that to do a “proper Brexit” is a national project requiring decades of costs, effort & debate.
I doubt more than 10% of leavers actually want this. They want brexit “done”. Preferably by August. They don’t want change or costs..
The thing about Brexit that many don’t get is that to do a “proper Brexit” is a national project requiring decades of costs, effort & debate.
I doubt more than 10% of leavers actually want this. They want brexit “done”. Preferably by August. They don’t want change or costs..
8/
Johnson may be a liar. He may be lazy but he’s no fool. You don’t get to be Conservative PM by confusing 60year old home owning Tory voters with revolutionaries.
He’ll want the path of least resistance Brexit & if that stuffs the DUP or ERG he’ll happy screw them.
Johnson may be a liar. He may be lazy but he’s no fool. You don’t get to be Conservative PM by confusing 60year old home owning Tory voters with revolutionaries.
He’ll want the path of least resistance Brexit & if that stuffs the DUP or ERG he’ll happy screw them.
