<The UK economy will collapse leading to brexiter buyer’s remorse. We’ll thus be back in EU within 5 years>
1. UK economy won’t collapse. The people in charge would rather load an extra £200bn of debt to mitigate Brexit.
As the uk economy won’t collapse brexiters won’t admit it was a mistake. No matter how badly we do it will be argued away.
The EU, remainers, everybody will be blamed. The conservatives will need another generation to come round to EU after their colours were tied to brexit.
Similarly too many political/journalist careers are invested in Brexit for important people to backtrack now.
So far so depressing - but there is, amongst these weds, good news for rejoiners....
You might not think so but the most important leave group - establishment Leavers - stopped believing in the benefits of Brexit long ago.
They despise Johnson but ran scared of stopping Brexit lest it damage the “conservative brand” - esp. while Corbyn was around.
So...
The next 5 years will be devoted to selling a fiction of an independent resurgent Britannia to the British public while as many UK business follow as many EU rules as possible.
A soft Brexit coalition of remainers & the establishment will attempt to limit the Brexit chaos...
In 5-10 years the UK will be in a “associate” agreement with EU. The level of alignment will then increase not decrease. UK will even get the fig leaf of consultation.
...& somewhere along the way this will solidify into quasi membership of certain EU institutions.
So how..
Remainers cant force, Argue or shame leavers into rejoining. What we can do is to help engineer the context within with rejoining or close alignment is the natural state.
It’s no longer soft Brexit as an alternative to remain. It’s soft Brexit as a precondition for rejoin.
Now I’ll say something that will confuse some remainers - Brexit cannot fail.
A clear brexit failure destroys the conservative establishment - which they cannot allow - & likely destroys Britain.
Whatever the cost the govt will ensure Brexit at least vaguely works.
How?
There’s only one way Brexit works - or at least doesn’t destroy the UK - that is by recreating as much EU co-op/alignment outside actual membership as possible.
Every shift, every agreement to a soft brexit paves the way for rejoining.
The narrative has changed...
Most voters are tired of brexit.
It’s no longer a dream but reality.
A reality with costs.
Remainers need to fight for soft Brexit which will reduce these costs/issues.
Now’s not the time to give up.
Now’s the time to lobby for soft Brexit.
& thus ultimately rejoin..
/Ends