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We all know there's uncertainty over how MPs will vote on #Brexit this week. Thought it might be handy just to flag why there's also uncertainty over exactly what & when they're voting on (nerdy procedure thread....) 1/
First, a reminder of the position in law: unless something happens in the A50 process (that is, Withdrawal Agreement [WA] is ratified or A50 period is extended), the UK by law leaves the EU on 29/3 without a Withdrawal Agreement in force. 2/
For WA to be ratified, by UK law HoC must approve it (& Political Declaration) in a motion moved by a minister under section 13 of EU (Withdrawal) Act (the #meaningfulvote due Tues 12/3); UK Parliament must also pass Withdrawal Agreement Bill (not yet introduced to Parl); ... 3/
... & European Parliament must also give its consent to the EU concluding the WA. Also, don't forget WA hasn't even been signed yet - signing would have to be slotted in somewhere, presumably if & after HoC passes a s13 approval motion & before EP can consent. 4/
PM is under no obligation in law to ask HoC to vote on any of the up-to-3 motions she's promised for this wk (a plan HoC endorsed in 27/2 resolution). But in law HoC must pass a s13 gov motion approving WA & Pol Dec sometime before UK leaves if UK is to leave with WA in force 5/
1st uncertainty is exact content of package that HoC is due to be asked to debate & approve tomorrow (Tues 12/3). This is, apparently, still being negotiated. We don't know if/when any resulting document(s) might be published. 6/
So, anything new produced by the negotiations is not going to be easily available for high-quality scrutiny before the 12/3 debate eg by select committees. (European Research Group had said 48 hrs should be available for scrutiny of deal.) 7/
Next uncertainty is wording of gov motion for Tues 12/3 (due to be the s13 approval motion). This will only be officially published when HoC Order Paper for Tues is published late Mon night/early Tues morning, tho' the text may well make it into the public domain before then. 8/
Any amendments proposed to the gov motion will also be published in the Order Paper for Tues 12/3. MPs have until the time the House finishes sitting this evening (Mon 11/3) to table amendments. 9/
Content of deal & wording of motion matter (apart from anything else) 'cos of parly rule vs. asking HoC to vote again on a motion "the same, in substance" as a Q it's already decided in same parly session. This is prob got around fairly easily but counts as outside wildcard. 10/
Next uncertainty is timing/length/any other rules for 12/3 debate. If gov's motion is a s13 motion, by default the debate would only be 90 mins, but gov has said it will allow more than this. This will require gov to pass a business motion on 12/3 before start of main debate. 11/
As well as timings, look out for any limit possibly proposed to the no. of amendments that may be debated (the business motion for the original, aborted, #meaningfulvote debate - in Dec (!) - set limit of 6), tho' there's few signs there'll be that many serious ams on Tues. 12/
& then if WA+Pol Dec aren't approved 12/3 & gov goes ahead with no-deal vote 13/3, we'll have same procedure i.e. business motion, main gov motion & any amendments tabled in time for Order Paper on Tues night (HoC Leader Leadsom will prob announce plans at end of 12/3 voting) 13/
& then if no-deal isn't approved 13/3 & gov goes ahead with A50 extension vote 14/3, it'll be same again on evening of 13/3 in time for 14/3 Order Paper. /end
