Long Thread: The borders/territory/settlements dimension of Trump’s plan.
I recreated the map Kushner/Dermer/Friedman/Berkowitz/Greenblatt attached to their plan. I had to make some judgement calls because some key parts were hidden under a bridge/tunnel marker. 
I needed to recreate the map because the original did not show the 1967 lines; the drafters don’t recognize its significance. Superimposing them shows what West Bank/Gaza areas are annexed to Israel and what areas from Israel-proper are swapped in return.
Let’s go.
Overall: According to the map Israel will annex 30% of the Palestinian territories (West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip) and will swap in return the equivalent of about 14%. All in all, the Palestinian State will be comprised of the equivalent of 84% of pre-1967 areas.
For Palestinians, who insist on the integrity of the 1967 lines (22% of mandated Palestine/Land of Israel) this is a non-starter. They've been willing to entertain swaps (allowing Israel to annex the largest settlements), provided they are small and equal. Not this.
Notably, the envisioned Palestinian state is totally encircled by Israeli territory (except the 12 km strip that separates Gaza and Egypt, but even there Israel will be at the international crossing).
Coupled with Israel’s exclusive, overriding security control over the land and the international crossings, the Palestinian state is not sovereign nor viable. It’s practically a self-ruling autonomy.
The Palestinian state is territorially non-contiguous; contiguity is limited to transportation links. Lengthy ‘fingers’ of Israeli annexation expand deep into the West Bank from all sides, practically dividing the Palestinian state to 6 large cantons (2 WB, 1 Gaza, 2 Negev).
These ‘fingers’ create an impossibly-long border for Israel: about 1370 km! Tactically this is anti-security. Patrols will inevitably travel along inferior routs and subject themselves to many threats. All in the sake of retaining isolated, small settlements.
Also, the plan says “The security barrier will be realigned to match the new borders” (page 14). We are talking about many billions of $$$. Maybe Mexico will pay for it.
15 settlements housing 14,270 settlers (2018 numbers) will remain as enclaves in Palestine.
54 Palestinian towns housing 128,000 Palestinians (2016 numbers, today around 140,000 I think) will remain as enclaves inside West Bank areas that Israel will annex. This, in addition to 200,000-250,000 Palestinians in East Jerusalem that will remain under Israeli territory.
On East Jerusalem, the map does NOT mark the areas slated for the Palestinian ‘capital’ as part of the Palestinian state. These are two areas - Kafr ‘Aqeb and Shuafat RC - that were left east of the barrier and are slated for excision. For more visit bit.ly/EJ_Excision
The populated swaps part (Israeli-Arab towns slated to be swapped into Palestine) is a bad idea that is probably anti-democratic and can harm security by destabilizing Jewish-Arab relations inside Israel. For more visit bit.ly/pop_swaps
Note the area inside Gaza that Israel will retain. Did they draw the Gaza area too small by mistake? Given the accuracy of all the other lines — it’s not a mistake. It also suits the “Risk zone (300-1000m)” Israel has created (see also bit.ly/OCHA_Gaza).
The West Bank-Gaza link is important. But a tunnel is a pretty stupid idea. “Who wants to dig a fucking tunnel in the middle of the desert?” one past negotiator/planner told me. A ‘sunken’ road/rail is better. For more visit the slightly-dated bit.ly/WB_G_link.
To sum up: this is a non-starter for an agreed two-state solution. It’s codification of Israeli dominance over the entire area. The Palestinian state — the al Aqua Empire, if you will — is practically a self-governing autonomy designed to contain Palestinian aspirations.
To learn more about possible solutions, including the borders issues, visit ispeacestillpossible.com.
The End.
The End.
