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I put this out in a long thread a few months back, but when I say "this ain't your granddaddy's electorate anymore" really I mean its not your parent's. Or, if you're 40 like me, its not the 1 you voted under your 1st 20 yrs. Like I said, the electorate has CHANGED. The update of
this research, which will accompany the academic version of my forecasting work will show the division GROWS after this time period analyzed in my dissertation ('12). You want to know how Senate GOP can acquit a man even some of them admit did impeachable things? Its bc the
American electorate will not only tolerate it, but on their side of the aisle, actually DEMANDS it. It requires it. The GOP's being forced on this electoral death march by a Frankenstein electorate they lost control of.
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
Even while losing +2% to Nadar, IA broke for Gore over Bush in '00 & broke for Bush by .67% in '04. In 08', under a turnout scenario similar to '20 Obama crushed McCain by 9.5pts,then 5.8% in '12. Yes, Trump won the state in '16- & by a huge margin, over 9pts, & unlike other
Midwest states, he managed to crack the 50% mark here, something he failed to do in all but 1 other swing state (Ohio). What gets forgotten, apparently by @SenJoniErnst (@joniernst) too, is that @HillaryClinton only earned 41% of the vote & that is due to IA's unusually inclusive
3rd party ballot. As 3rd party balloting goes, this is 1 of the best menus voters can get, & in the Everyone Sucks election, its explains a missing 8% of the 2-party vote share. No 1 pays attention to this aside from me it seems, but its so critical.

Ersnt might want to though.
Read 5 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
I've yet to read @ezraklein's summary of the political science/political psych research on polarization. My dissertation on mass polarization, which I threaded about yesterday, was never submitted for publication but will appear in the theory section of the academic version of my
forecasting work, so @ezraklein would not have had access to it & thus would have had to draw on the out-dated (and I argue methodologically-contingent) "the public is fine" argument, which both @AlanIAbramowitz & I sounding reject in our quantitative research. Like I said, the
time series is getting expanded in the updated version & the mass polarization continues to grow after 2012. It is imp to distinguish to between people and voters. Voters are polarized. The tuned out are not, but that is not really all that helpful as they don't vote. And this
Read 7 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
This is a great excuse to finally talk about turnout-namely, that its likely to be historic (which, I should add is THE major data point I've been waiting for to confirm my forecast). Anyway, if the turnout IS historic, the polling could end up off. Historic turnout for sure will
mean a big surge in Under 30 turnout- but it won't be just that. As my forthcoming voter file analysis shows, turnout increased among all age groups in 2018. BUT a historic turnout increase in IA (and beyond) will also almost certainly mean more normal people participating than
normal. By normal, I mean less stridently partisan. As I said on earlier threads, this *could* advantage the mainstream faction, esp in the later primaries & esp in states w open primaries. We will see. Again, the turnout in the GA '17 gubernatorial primary (Dem) doubled over '13
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Revue Sesame
@RevueSesame
C'est la reprise ! Il y a donc ces incendies gigantesques et spectaculaires (forcément médiatiques) en Australie. C’est le #long #thread du jour parce que c’est plus compliqué que ce que les panaches de fumée que montrent les télés ! Vous déroulez ? ⤵️⤵️
Les chiffres font tourner la tête, vraiment, plus de 8,5 millions d’hectares ravagés, un milliard d’animaux brûlés vifs, des espèces endémiques menacées de disparition… Un casting de rêve pour les télés en continue, les cassandre et les collapsologues…
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Toyin Omotoso
@toyinomotoso
How to HACK Your Way Into People's Hearts...FAST!

In this short write-up, I want to share a powerful skill that I was forced to learn when I was dead broke

This is the skill of getting people to like you fast...and sometimes help you out as a result

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Because of this skill, I can meet someone for the first time and get them to really like me (that is if I like you though because I intentionally limit my circle of people. So I usually put up my "No BS shield" most of the time)
And because of this skill, I usually avoid certain situations with women because I usually end up getting into trouble when the woman begins to develop feelings.
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Aijay
@Hejeoma
#Thread
Make I put disclaimer before dem do meeting for my head.

CAVEAT!
1The stories I tell are 'factions'; a mixture of facts & fiction. What is fact & what is fiction is only known to me, this a creative enterprise using humour & plain story-telling to entertain, teach &
2. learn as well from your feedbacks. Names & incidences do not represent actual persons or experiences. I’m only using my literary licence, not motor licence O! Ehen!”
'Andrew, I'm checking out' is a phrase that started as far back as the 80's, it was made popular by veteran
3. actor Enebele Elebuwa in a popular TV promo about a young man named Andrew who got fed up with the country & decided to leave for good. Clutching his portomanteau who declare “Men, no light, no water, no job…I'm tired of this country …I'm checking out.' My people, no be
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Aijay
@Hejeoma
#Thread 1. My people make una no vex about the gist I promised to drop, the damn thing is too long & too explicit. I have been working with my team of directors at 'HBO' to edit & re-shoot. lol I go do am like 'Game of thrones' & drop it in episodes cos all cant fit in 25 extra
2. tweets as given by twitter. Episode 1:
Disclaimer: The stories I tell here are factions, that is they are a mixture of facts & fiction. What is fact/fiction is only known to me, this is primarily a creative enterprise using humor & plain story-telling skills to entertain,
3. teach & learn as well from your feedback. Please, note that names & incidences do not represent actual persons or experiences. I’m only using my literary license, not motor license O! (Rated 18+) James & Joan have been married for 5 years & have two kids together.
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Moss Robeson
@mossrobeson__
45 years ago today, delegates arrived at the Capital Hilton hotel in Washington DC for Day One of the 7th annual World Anti-Communist League (WACL) conference, the first to be hosted in the United States. #thread
A few months before Richard Nixon resigned, the President's Deputy Special Assistant, Burce Herschensohn, delivered the keynote address at WACL-7. Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) co-chaired the conference with Congressmen Phil Crane (R-IL) and Clement Zablocki (D-WI).
The event was officially hosted by the American Council for World Freedom (ACWF), which had just elected Phyllis Schlafly's husband its new president. As an important member of the ACWF, Lev Dobriansky had a substantial role in organizing the conference.
Read 14 tweets
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iBMC
@iBMC4PMB
FG'S ACTIONS ON COMMUNAL CONFLICTS
#thread
1) Few months past, Nigeria endured a continuation of the 30+ yrs of Perennial herdsmen/farming community clashes.
Some of the notable actions @MBuhari has taken are presented below starting with a historical linkage with the more recent
2)... incidences of the violence:

-2013, No fewer than 9 cases of herdsmen attacks were recorded in Benue State alone, with more than 190 people killed.

-2014, no fewer than 16 recorded attacks, in Benue, which claimed more than 230 victims.
3) -Between January and May 2015, 6 attacks left more than 300 people dead, again in Benue State alone.
Read 20 tweets

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