This is a great excuse to finally talk about turnout-namely, that its likely to be historic (which, I should add is THE major data point I've been waiting for to confirm my forecast). Anyway, if the turnout IS historic, the polling could end up off. Historic turnout for sure will
mean a big surge in Under 30 turnout- but it won't be just that. As my forthcoming voter file analysis shows, turnout increased among all age groups in 2018. BUT a historic turnout increase in IA (and beyond) will also almost certainly mean more normal people participating than
normal. By normal, I mean less stridently partisan. As I said on earlier threads, this *could* advantage the mainstream faction, esp in the later primaries & esp in states w open primaries. We will see. Again, the turnout in the GA '17 gubernatorial primary (Dem) doubled over '13
and in my opinion, that increased participation helped Northam have an easier victory than expected. Anyway, successful polling comes completely down to how successful you are at predicting the demos of the electorate- which is conditioned by turnout. The 2020 pollsters are
weights on their data as to what they *think* the electorate will look like and if it looks differently- most esp here-older or younger than expected- those polls will be off.
