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Boy oh boy... Still trying to digest this. “14,840 new confirmed cases, almost 10 times reported a day earlier, and new deaths attributable to the contagion rose to 242, more than double on the day” We need to see #COVID19 trendline from new case method.🤔 scmp.com/news/china/soc…
2) So it seems most of the 14.8k new cases - 13.3k are CT confirmed pneumonia without lab🧪 test. I think China must have been pressured to release these since Hubei lab capacity is only 6k/day and couldn’t test all. Is this new definition going forward?🤷🏻‍♂️
3) So Dr @ScottGottliebMD thinks that the bulk of CT diagnosed cases may be somewhat more significant clinical cases. This is important since we want to know if these 13.3k extra cases are mild or severe. Case definition changes always makes stats tricky.
4) Reports are that many people with CT pneumonia didn’t have chance to get lab test to confirm (lab over capacity likely) according to @WilliamYang120 (any relation to Andrew Yang?)... so I wonder what % of CT pneumonia lately who got lab🧪test eventually were #COVID19 positive?
5) The best explanation of diagnostic change comes from NYT China reporter @suilee who quotes experts saying many patients test positive on🧪only very late. Because #COVID19 is so highly transmissible, and labs take 2 days, they are going with CT directly.
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