In speaking at a dinner tonight on "Will Democracy Win?" #MSC2020 , yes we need to start w/ (1) world democratic recession is in its 13th year; (2) Russian and China autocracies are on the rise (3) illiberal populists are on the moved in old democracies (4) US not promoting demo
BUT I also argued the following several points: (1) Bad today compared to what? 1930s? 1940? 1950s? 1970s? Most of human history? (The recession more mild than previous democratic reversals.)
(2) still more democracies today that autocracies.
(3) Popular mobilization around the world lately (Sudan, Hong Kong, Iraq, etc.) is for democracy, not theocracy, Putinism or Leninist party-state. Anyone ever join a demonstration calling for more dictatorship recently?
(4) Polls show that most people around the world prefer democracy to dictatorship. Democracy is a universal value (not a Western value).
(5) People love to talk about China's fantastic economic growth (and that is a real achievement) , but rarely talk about the autocracies that fail at growth (ie Zimbabwe, North Korea).
(6) Immigrants and students who can move still gravitate to the United States and Europe, not China, Russia, or Iran.
(7) The non-oil exporting 20 richest countries in the world measured in GDP per capita terms are all democracies expect Singapore. China is still very far behind. (And lots of political drama usually occurs when countries try to move from middle-income to higher-income)
(8) BUT, democracy is not an engineering problem or determined by structural factors. People make and preserve democratic institutions. You don't get democracy without small d democrats. You dont keep democracy with small d democrats.
My quick two cents on #MSC2020 "Westlessness". What did I get wrong? What did I leave out? END THREAD.
