yeah, so that's not how it necessarily works my dude
I've actually been giving a lot of thought to Wisconsin (obviously a state the @DecisionDeskHQ has long been obsessed with) in the run-up to November 2020, and this is just one analyst's opinion, but here are the dynamics I see in play...
First, you start with the reality that Trump's numbers in WI are notably stronger than they have been nationally. For a swing state, it's notable that none of the D challengers have ever been able to get more than a pt ahead of him in state polling. (Compare w/2016, when he WON).
Second, you realize that there really isn't much more of the Democratic vote to squeeze out of Dane County (Madison), the big white progressive/college stronghold of the state. Their turnout was already sky-high in 2016, I expect the same in 2020. So where do Dems make it up?
The first and most obvious answer is Milwaukee County, where 2016 turnout among the AfAm vote was depressed. But is Bernie the guy to do that? Would even an AfAm VP pick (maybe Abrams or Harris) change that dynamic? I am very skeptical.
2nd dynamic to consider is that Trump won Wisconsin DESPITE bleeding significant (game-changing, really) numbers of normally dead-red GOP votes in the W-O-W counties, the Milwaukee suburbs. My gut feeling is those are mostly coming back to him in 2020...all of them if it's Bernie
So really, key battleground IMO is going to be where it always has been in WI statewide races: western and north-central WI. Wausau, Eau Claire, La Crosse, the blue-collar Dem regions that went Trumpish in 2016 and still are supporting him. Who takes those back in this economy?
I predict black turnout in Milwaukee will be up at least a bit from 2016. But I also think GOP voter will return to the fold in the suburbs, cancelling most of that out. And Dane County has nowhere to go. It's out-state that will govern. Another coin-flip race.
Of course, if there's some national disaster or economic apocalypse, all of this is moot. This is just based on a situation where the basic equilibrium holds steady through November.
