Watched the latest video from JIDEA last night (I’ll try to find it and link it here), and they estimated China/Wuhan was only tracking 5% of the outbreak at this point. Made some historical facts about pandemic flus...
1) 20-40% of the world population gets noticeably infected in the first year, but this number misses about 20% of folks who either have zero or extremely mild symptoms, which is where this 60% of the world gets the virus in respiratory pandemics number comes from.
2) estimated 15% severe infections, and from a 0.25-4% case fatality rate (the bottom number, or best case scenario, is about the same as the 1968 pandemic flu), but all these numbers are preliminary.
Here is the video, it’s both academic and stark but also highlights how much uncertainty there is at this point
Depending upon how the epidemic is spread out, the 15% severe illness => absolute # of hospital beds is a big issue (not saying anything profound here but this is a problem)
Here’s a simplistic analysis of how the age of the population could affect CFR in different countries
Ie: Africa relatively spared, Europe not so much (still based on very preliminary numbers...) wonder what the relative age and health of Diamond Princess passengers is? Assuming relative to gen pop healthy-ish older folks?
Calculating CFR in the early phase of an ongoing epidemic... 
Every known case in Singapore (TY @WhatWillUThink) I cut out the left side because it had names/addresses. But on the right you have the transition from imported to community spread of cases beautifully illustrated...
From Germany...quarantine measures at this point can slow it down but very unlikely to stop it
My concerns about the US in particular: 1) bed availability 2) elderly, immunocompromised, and health care professionals on the front lines 3) availability of medications as Wuhan is world epicenter of basic pharma ingredients.
4) other runs on supplies (?) happened in Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong. Seems prudent to have some canned goods and toilet paper on hand (not a doomsday preppier basement amount, but a week or two like we have for the occ blizzard)
A couple of other things I am probably not qualified to address but will anyway...4% CFR would be pretty grim, but I’m seeing some folks use the China numbers and estimating 17-18% (catastrophic). 18% CFR *is* the estimated CFR for those *counted* in Wuhan.
But doesn’t account for the vast majority of infected that weren’t counted...its early and we have a lot more outside China numbers now. Most other places aren’t screening the population at all (US starts next week as part of flu surveillance).
There are also some interesting blank areas out there on that map. gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
My prepping...in the office my Purell was running low, so I got the big one to replace it.
Just wanted to update this. @WHO released a report today with some additional mathematical modeling and their estimated “infection fatality rate” for #COVID19 is 0.3%-1% who.int/docs/default-s…
Oh whoops that didn’t last long
