The question here is quite simple. Do you want a definite YES majority at Holyrood or do you want a "possibly maybe" SNP majority in 2021. Because the chances of getting a result like 2011 are pretty scarce and that's nobody's fault except Westminster.
I've seen SNP politicians in the last few days doing their nut in about a possible YES alliance and to be perfectly clear, I actually find the whole "your splitting the vote" line to be manifestly dishonest.
Now before YES supporters go nuts because of me saying that, you need to understand something about the AMS system used at holyrood. 2011 was a complete electoral fluke. The entire AMS system was dreamt up by Westminster to specifically stop a majority.
In simple terms, you have two ballots. The first is the constituency ballot. This is where you vote for a single candidate in your own little constituency around about you. The second is the regional ballot. For me, that's mid Scotland and Fife.
The parties submit a list numbered 1 to 7 of the people that they want to stand in that region. When you go to the polls and vote in the regional ballot, you don't put a cross next to a person like a constituency ballot, you put it next to a party.
When the party gets a seat in that region, the first person on that list gets that seat, then when they get another, the second person gets a seat etc etc.
This is why it is often referred to as "the list" or the "regional list". However! The regional list has a built-in, automatic penalty. The better your party does in the constituency ballot, it gets penalised in the list.
If our system in Scotland was truly democratic, the SNP would have a majority at the minute. Unfortunately, the don't and that's not their fault, nor is it the fault of people they vote for. The fault lies with the very system that was specifically designed to stop majorities.
And so, we end up with MSP's in Holyrood who haven't really won anything, they simply end up there from opposition parties because the incumbent party that did so well in the constituency ballot ended up getting penalised.
In the last few weeks, talk of an electoral pact with smaller parties have popped up. The idea being that the SNP would stand on the constituency ballot and all yessers would vote for SNP candidates, but on the list, where the SNP wouldn't get those seats anyway....
.... They advocate for other local yes candidates to be given the Yes vote. Those local yes candidates, not being SNP, would not be penalised for the SNPs sweeping wins in the constituency ballot.
Unionist politicians would lose their seats, Yes supporting candidates would wipe the floor with them and Holyrood would gain up to 20 new yes supporting seats with a majority that Westminster couldn't ignore.
But there is great resistance in the SNP about doing this. They are advocating SNP in both ballots. The problem here is perception. While its great that a party advocates strongly about its own candidates standing on the list, that is not how it is coming across and...
... it is starting to come across to the wider yes movement (and I will remind everyone that the SNP membership only accounts for 1/13th of those who voted yes in 2014) as selfishness on the part of the party.
Let me be clear about this. I said "perception" not reality. In truth, the motivations on why they advocate against an alliance elude me and I am not going to comment on them.
But resistance to an electoral pact is damaging because it creates the perception of putting their party before the movement. (Whether or not that is the case is immaterial. The perception that it could be the case is the damaging matter under discussion).
Let me put it this way. You make a complaint about something and files from that case mysteriously disappear due to a clerical error. The clerical error might be completely genuine, but the perception is that the files disappeared to deflect liability. That's what we're talking..
..about.
Most yessers "lend" their vote to the SNP because they understand they are the primary party which will enable independence. However, the electoral maths is pretty clear.
Most yessers "lend" their vote to the SNP because they understand they are the primary party which will enable independence. However, the electoral maths is pretty clear.
The SNP WILL NOT DO WELL ON THE REGIONAL BALLOT BECAUSE THEY DO SO WELL ON THE CONSTITUENCY BALLOT. Therefore the only logical choice, purely from a non-partisan YES point of view is to maximise the number of YES seats...
...returned to Holyrood and the only way to achieve that logically is for the SNP to put aside their partisan politics and allow smaller Yes parties to stand unchallenged where the SNP will not gain seats.
The question ALWAYS has to come back to this:
Do you want a majority in Holyrood which supports yes?
If you answered YES then the only way to do that is an alliance of parties and the SNP to enable that.
Do you want a majority in Holyrood which supports yes?
If you answered YES then the only way to do that is an alliance of parties and the SNP to enable that.
If that doesn't happen, the chances of the SNP getting a majority are slim based on the polarised views, because I can tell you, Unionists WILL be choosing their party vote on the list based on who is most likely to win between Tory and Labour. It's that simple!
