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Those who believe Australia is a model for future UK trade policy presumably know that they have a single market type relationship with New Zealand?
Well that set folk off as I'd expect. The key points are that regional regulatory integration is common, and that there aren't good models for the UK's current situation. Success or not still down to our own decisions, but best they're based on facts not fantasies.
And the EU obsessives asked why I wasn't comparing the Australia / New Zealand relationship with the EU. Because for some people it appears everything still has to be about the EU. Even if the original tweet was about the UK using Australia as a model for trade relations...
It appears that people assume when I say single market I meant the EU single market. Not the case - a single market is not a concept restricted to Europe. We really need to learn more about this world we've committed to get out into.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Hopefully not embarrassing @NicoleSykes_ too much the CBI document on their priorities for the future UK-EU relationship is one of the best I've read at explaining the complexities of modern trade, and should be a reference for the UK gov's mandate... cbi.org.uk/media/4105/125…
@NicoleSykes_ In particular the report explains why the UK should be seeking various forms of wider regulatory cooperation, whether in services or goods, and how zero tariffs is really only the start. Knowledge once at core of UK gov but now often forgotten...
@NicoleSykes_ A shallow Free Trade Agreement between UK and EU is going to mean huge barriers to trade with our neighbours. Our businesses, consumers, employees expect more. Over time I expect this to happen, but possibly with considerable disruption until we get there.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Unpack UK-EU this year. Messaging. Different negotiations.

On messaging - for UK firms about changes and all being ready (including gov). For domestic consumption about toughness and accusing EU of not playing fair.

Messaging plays into negotiations...
UK-EU negotiations - future relationship, other deals (fish, financial services etc), implementing N Ireland protocol. Where without atmosphere of trust potential for real problems (e.g. less chance of EU allowing customs easements if talks elsewhere bad).
EU playbook - punish if talks going badly e.g. no data adequacy, slow / no recognition of food exporters etc. But, enforcement of NI protocol while clear enough in treaty may not be easily done in practice. Encourage EU to not raise the stakes too much?
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
And the hokey-cokey continues, one day retaining current ban on various US foods, the next implying that we won't. And I think we're now approaching the anniversary of the first hoped for publication date of a mandate for UK-US trade talks.
Perhaps instead of suggesting the EU are divided over their mandate we could look closer to home. Or even better accept there are always divisions within a country on how to approach trade talks, and the essential negotiation is with your own side. Always.
Thus in the EU Sweden and France are often going to have differences on their approach to trade policy. In the UK business groups and devolved assemblies clearly have different priorities to government. All normal. The UK is just not used to this or it doesn't fit the narrative.
Read 4 tweets

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Michael Gray
@GrayInGlasgow
Back in Court of Session. Case before Lord Pentland by @JolyonMaugham claiming interdict against UK Ministers on grounds that the proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement breaches existing law on the customs status of Northern Ireland.
Aidan O’Neill QC appearing for petitioner. Will speak for 1 hour 30. Begins by stating that petition anticipated the contents of the Withdrawal Agreement - and was largely correct. Claims it breaches section 55 of Taxation (Cross border Trade) Act 2018 on Northern Ireland.
O’Neill: There is not yet an Agreement under EU Law - at it is not passed by the European Parliament as required. So this remains a live legal issue.
Read 30 tweets
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Anton Muscatelli
@UofGVC
As we approach the latest round of ‘decisions’ (sic) on Brexit by House of Commons., some thoughts on the odds of various scenarios.
1.
First of all, it’s worth reminding ourselves that Brussels cannot and will not offer a unilateral exit from the NI element of the backstop. A time-limited backstop is a contradiction in terms. Hence @MichelBarnier latest thread sets out how far the EU might go on this
2.
The UK had requested a more complex backstop incorporating a customs arrangement with the UK in the negotiations, rather than a NI specific backstop. This was a big achievement by UK negotiators. The EU had resisted it.
But the ERG rebuffed the PM because they don’t want...
3.
Read 14 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
So I’ve read the full CATO/IFT report on a future “ideal” UK-US free trade agreement and have some thoughts.

ifreetrade.org/pdfs/US-UK-FTA…
First thing to say is that it is devoid of all context and political reality. It doesn’t address fact that some of the suggestions would inevitably create new barriers to trade with EU, nor the economic cost (and evidence suggests it would be a net cost) of divergence from EU.
So, taking all that into account, I would definitely recommend reading it. It’s a substantial piece of work that I would break down into four categories:
Read 8 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Martin Cooper
@mpc_1968
1/ A few clips from 21/03/18 @EP_Trade hearing panel, 'Impact of #Brexit & transition'. Barbara Baarsma gives a frank assessment of what Brexit means for the UK economy. @NvOndarza @SamuelMarcLowe @KirstyS_Hughes
2/ Why the UK may end up with all the obligations from EU trade agreements with 3rd countries but not all the benefits during and after transition. @SamuelMarcLowe explains (in a couple of slightly edited clips).
3/ @SamuelMarcLowe
Read 9 tweets
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Anthony Zacharzewski
@anthonyzach
The “managed divergence” plane is obviously going to explode in the hangar let alone on the runway, but I think this gives the EU side a problem more than the British. /1
The U.K. are where they always were - unable to choose between Canada (no formal alignment on rules, free movement or courts, but lots of trade barriers and a hard border in Ireland) and Norway (stay entirely in the single market).
UK’s new position is what it always was “we want trade on our terms and none of the rules or immigrants”. This is called cherry-picking because it sounds nice and bucolic rather than “arrogant entitled tosspottery” which is what it is.
Read 12 tweets

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