Thread by @JWMason1

There's widespread view, both among supporters of Bernie Sanders and opponents, that if he doesn't win absolute majority of pledged delegates, there's a real chance that someone else could be nominated at the convention. I’m not sure this reflects reality of a convention. 1/16

Yes, after first ballot delegates can vote for whoever, and there’s the superdelegates, about 15% of the total. But it’s not a complete reset. Bernie’s delegates are still going to vote for Bernie. Which means a strong plurality is almost certainly enough for the nomination. 2/16

If Bernie comes into the convention just short of a majority, he only needs to win over a few additional delegates to get a majority on the second ballot. Conversely, any other candidate needs to win over almost all of the non-Bernie delegates for a majority. 3/16

For concreteness, let’s suppose that Bernie comes in with 45%, and someone else comes in with 20%. In this scenario, Bernie needs to get less than 10% of the remaining delegates to get to a majority. Candidate 2 needs to get 75% of them. Which seems more likely? 4/16

The math here seems decisive to me - in practice a near-majority is a majority. But the case gets stronger when we make it more concrete. Bernie is really popular with Democrats. He has a great organizing operation. Why wouldn’t he get that 10%?

5/16

I have no idea who the actual delegates are this year. But when I actually did this stuff back in the 2000s, some delegates were campaign staff, but a lot were rank and file supporters or members of endorsing orgs, who got offered delegate slots as a kind of perk.

6/16

These people probably like Sanders - most Dems do! - and aren't engaged in nth-order political calculations and are not suitable receptacles for Bloomberg cash. At least a few will vote for him on 2nd ballot. And if he has plurality of pledged delegates, he only needs a few.
7/16

Meanwhile, the problem of competing centrists won’t go away at the convention. Bloomberg, Mayor Pete, Klobuchar, Warren will presumably all still be vying to be nominee. How does the convergence on one of them happen there, if it hasn’t yet?

8/16

Remember, in this scenario, Bernie’s at 45%, his rival is at 20%. In this case, he needs 9% of the remaining delegates, the other person needs 75% of them.

9/16

Many Warren delegates, I’m sure, will sincerely believe she’s challenging the billionaires. Are they going to vote for Bloomberg? Or are his delegates going to vote for her? Are Biden’s delegates going to vote for Pete? Conflicts don’t magically go away at the convention.

10/16

The bottom line is that if Bernie (or anyone else for that matter) comes into the convention close to a majority, they only need to win over a few delegates to cross the line. While anyone else needs an overwhelming majority. It’s not symmetrical.

11/16

Even if Bernie comes into the convention with just 40% of pledged delegates, and candidate 2 comes in with 30%, that still implies that Bernie needs just 1/3 of the remaining delegates to get to a majority, while candidate 2 would need 2/3 of them.

12/16

My conclusion is that the idea of a brokered convention is a fantasy - a fantasy that’s appealed to political professional for as long as the modern primary process has existed, or at least as long as I've been around to pay attention.

13/16

My DSA friends who are talking about direct action at the convention if they try to deprive Sanders of a win - that makes sense. You have to plan for every possibility, and a credible threat is one you’re less likey to have to act on.

14/16

If you’re a Bloomberg consultant, and you tell him - and just as important, Politico politico.com/news/2020/02/2… - that there’s a plan to take the nomination at the convention, that makes sense too. You’ve got to tell him something if you want to keep the checks coming! But

15/16

The reality, it seems to me, is that a candidate who has a clear plurality of pledged delegates coming into the convention is overwhelmingly likely to win 2nd ballot. They just have to get a few of the others, whereas anyone else would have to get almost all.

That was 16/16. But I have to add: Watch MSNBC or whatever and you see a bunch of confused old guys running around crashing into each other and shouting "Russian plot!" every time they can't find their glasses. They couldn't steal a nomination if their lives depended on it.

Another datapoint: Bernie is currently tied for second for superdelegates, per 538's endorsement tracker. If superdelegates already prefer him to Warren or Klobuchar, they'll prefer him a lot more when he's clear leader. Idea they'll unify around someone else is a fantasy.