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Has anyone thought about mapping how a corona virus outbreak in Kenya could impact biashara and trade/agriculture supply chains?
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE Image
EXECUTIVE ORDER No. 2 of 2020: NATIONAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE COMMITTEE ON CORONAVIRUS scribd.com/document/44931…
Image
The East African

“Four big cargo ships that supply goods from China 🇨🇳 into East Africa have failed to dock at Mombasa port for the 2nd month in a row following outbreak of the corona virus infection, pointing to possible surge in prices of consumer goods in the region” Image
Trade between Tanzania and China has taken a downturn following corona virus outbreak.

“The crisis in China has triggered a big drop in passenger and cargo volumes between the two countries” Image
Rwanda 🇷🇼 scrambles for alternative sources of imports

“Rwandan traders are racing to find alternative sources of consumer goods and raw materials they used to import from China 🇨🇳” Image
Starting to look grim.

I’m worried for all the people downstream, whose sources of income are somewhat linked to Chinese supply chain
The countries best and worst prepared for an epidemic via Zerohedge, Statista ImageImage
Might have to cancel Afro Asia Fintech festival planned for June and maybe Safari Rally tour planned for Kenya in July
Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize has confirmed that South Africa's first suspected case of Covid-19 has tested positive. m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Ne…
Cameroon’s health ministry on Friday confirmed its first case of coronavirus, a 58-year-old French citizen who arrived in the capital Yaounde on Feb. 24. af.reuters.com/article/topNew…
The spread of coronavirus prejudice in Kenya 🇰🇪 bbc.com/news/world-afr…
My uber driver Robert from Nairobi says he now declines requests from Chinese people
“Adrian Blomfield, a veteran freelance journalist here, said that all the drivers at his local taxi rank had agreed not to carry Chinese people as passengers.”
“One taxi driver told me that Chinese nationals were changing their user names on the taxi hailing apps to avoid their passenger request being declined.”
Top government and private sector officials will hold a series of meetings to explore alternative source markets for supplies in the wake of deadly Covid-19 outbreak that has cut off imports from China 🇨🇳 “ Image
Kenyans start to feel the impact of Coronavirus Image
Also overheard a couple of Kenyan biashara traders discussing delayed shipments from China 🇨🇳
It’s here guys

Ministry of Health confirms first case of Coronavirus in Kenya 🇰🇪

Kenya 🇰🇪 suspends all public gatherings, games, events and church crusades
Kenya’s first reported case was a citizen who travelled to Nairobi from the US via London on

MARCH 5th!

Today is March 13th ... Image
Insurance won’t cover it

“The Association of Kenya Insurers (AKI) said the classification of the disease as a pandemic indicates that victims will settle their own medical bills if cases are reported in Kenya 🇰🇪 “ Image
Middle class problems https://t.co/LxYNSmQbb3
Scenes from Carrefour of Middle class Kenyans today stockpiling toilet paper, hand sanitizer and water ImageImageImage
Ethiopia 🇪🇹 has confirmed its first case of the new coronavirus

Takele Uma Banti, the mayor of the capital Addis Ababa, tweeted that a Japanese citizen was the person affected

citizentv.co.ke/news/ethiopia-…
The Kenya 🇰🇪 Insurance Regulatory Authority has said any policy holder who gets infected with the corona virus will be covered citizentv.co.ke/news/coronavir…
Tusker Mattresses Limited (TML)- Tuskys has allayed fears of a looming shortage in essential products after Kenyans started panic-shopping at its stores on Friday after Kenya’s first coronavirus case was announced

citizentv.co.ke/news/tuskys-on…
Matatu (public transport) operators from Kasarani route apply disinfectant on all passengers before boarding

(I’m not sure 🤔 how this helps)
Matatu touts in Nairobi in masks 😷

Also spotted at least 10 people around the city today with masks
“Kenya’s confirmation of the novel coronavirus stopped trading activity at the Nairobi Securities Exchange after the benchmark index plunged by more than 5 percent.”

capitalfm.co.ke/business/2020/…
National security response to coronavirus on the news today ImageImageImageImage
Great thread on coronavirus

Explaining why there’s a lag between sudden appearance of cases

https://t.co/en2ctf9qjx
16 African countries with confirmed #COVID19 cases:

1. Egypt
2. Algeria
3. Nigeria
4. Tunisia
5. Senegal
6. Morocco
7. South Africa
8. Cameroon
9. Togo
10. Burkina Faso
11. DRC Congo
12. Cote d'ivoire
13. Ghana
14. Gabon
15. Kenya
16. Ethiopia

Via @kenyanwalstreet Image
A couple of Kenyan universities take a cautionary decision to suspend on-campus classes starting Monday next week

*might as well do this for primary and secondary schools too
Kenya Rugby Union suspends all leagues set for March 14, 2020 due to #Covid_19. #CoronaInKenya
Higher order impact of corona virus in Kenya and the rest of the world

This is Kuzima pub on a Saturday and as you can see it’s empty. Used to be full at this time of day

But since there’s no more football (abroad) and public gatherings banned (locally), no more business Image
Rwanda and Namibia have confirmed their first cases of coronavirus.

The Rwanda case is an Indian citizen who arrived from Mumbai on March 8, the Health Ministry said on Saturday.

citizentv.co.ke/news/rwanda-na…
Namibia reported its first two cases of coronavirus on Saturday.

Spanish couple arrived in the country on Wednesday and both tested positive and have been quarantined, Health Minister Kalumbi Shangula said.
Now its 7

“7 people believed to hav been in contact w/ the Kenyan who tested positive for coronavirus have been isolated at the Mbagathi Hospital.

Reports indicate that they are from Simba Drive Ole Kasasi estate in Ongata Rongai, the same place where the patient lives”
What to expect next

Mass migration of people from Ongata Rongai?
“Mombasa county has directed that all night clubs and discos remain closed for 30 days” citizentv.co.ke/news/mombasa-c…
Today a matatu driver from Thika Road observed lower traffic of versus typical Sundays
2 more confirmed cases from contact with patient 1 https://t.co/CtAOLwom8k
The Judiciary has announced open court appearances will remain suspended for the next two weeks beginning Monday, March 16 to protectits staff as well as the public from coronavirus infection and to prevent the spread of the disease. https://t.co/XAvjMlgFuP
Government suspends learning in the country, all primary and secondary students to be home by 18th March.

All universities, colleges to close by Friday 20th March ~ President Uhuru Kenyatta decrees https://t.co/YKn3CSiwxm
Schools shutting down means some food (agric) suppliers and supply chains lose thousands of customers in institutions and individual counts

Upside, kids go back and home and someone else feeds them
Also means households will come under more pressure.

No social welfare
Slowing business
Digital loans
Tapping savings
Liquidating
Not looking great for wedding planners https://t.co/0ylzFBjMDO
Damage control, suggestion for corona virus welfare plan for households under shock

https://t.co/SaYmlz98Od
Price of refilling gas cylinders going up

From 800 >> 1250

https://t.co/criqRJdJHU
Im having dinner at this coffee shop where the owner says they are getting more remote orders for delivery for dinner

Says he’s considering turning this virus into an opportunity for a trusted cooked (or even fresh) source of food

#win #coronavirusinKenya
Business is closed following government directive https://t.co/2lXxeLpfS1
Somalia bans miraa importation from Kenya and Ethiopia due to Coronavirus https://t.co/7TQYUomaTy
The Kenyan government ordered all public service vehicle (PSV) operators/ matatus to ensure that their vehicles are constantly cleaned and fumigated in a bid to contain spread of the coronavirus citizentv.co.ke/news/wash-fumi…
Kenyan Matatus weak link in anti - corona war Image
Uber has temporarily closed its Kenya 🇰🇪 Greenlight Hubs, where drivers can go to get in-person help with answering questions and completing forms, in an effort to help lessen the spread of the coronavirus via Kenyan Uber driver Image
Makuen County Governor Kivutha Kibwana has banned all the market days in the county over fears of corona virus spread citizentv.co.ke/news/makueni-c…
Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya has ordered the closure of all open-air markets with immediate effect in the wake of coronavirus capitalfm.co.ke/news/2020/03/k…
5 minutes ago i heard on radio Jambo that traders in Kakamega have refused to abide by this directive

They accused bureaucrats of cutting them off from their biashara source of income while said bureaucrats have security of tenure and bank balances
Public cry for stimulus measures to boost economy in the wake of corona virus Image
Kenya cannot afford more confirmed cases of corona. Could get ugly if we get Italian style explosion of cases due to ripple effects from complex biashara economy

May define governance choices during the next election
I also realize now that fornour country, the best way to track real time updates on corona fears on the ground is radio > twitter , probably whatsapp too

There’s a delay by the time info gets to twitter

Maybe b/c our people dont have the luxury of time to burn on twitter
They are offline grinding, yet it is them who are impacted the most

So, check your bias
Why State must rescue economy from coronavirus

See highlighted measures Image
BREAKING: The Ministry of @RwandaTrade has fixed food prices in order to prevent markets from hiking them during the #coronavirus outbreak.

The list of foods whose prices have been fixed are attached to this tweet.

https://t.co/CliZ6678yi
“If push comes to shove, cabinet secretaries can declare curfews, order arrests and seal off or enter private homes by invoking the Public Order Act to stop corona virus spread” Image
Kenya Govt confirms one additional coronavirus case as the total no. of confirmed cases rises to 4 in the country.

A total of 23 people tested turned negative.

A total of 111 cases have been tested in Kenya so far via @kenyanwalstreet
Corona virus in Holland is affecting flower industry in Kenya
3 new confirmed cases. Total now 7

https://t.co/5HRTm6J5k6
Kenya Commercial banks have agreed to extend repayment of personal loans by a period of up to 12 months in a measure to cushion the economy from feeling the full brunt of the coronavirus impact. citizentv.co.ke/business/banks…
I’m watching Citizen TV right now

They interviewed several biashara people in major urban towns and they ALL report business is slow due to government actions on corona virus 🦠
The Kenyan government is now tracing 145 people who might have come into contacted 145 individuals with patients who have tested positive for the coronavirus. citizentv.co.ke/news/govt-trac…
Modern Coast bus company has suspended all services from Kenya to Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda until further notice to avert the spread of coronavirus citizentv.co.ke/news/modern-co…
Food prices in Kenya May increase if Covid-19 forced lockdown

State told to stock strategic food reserves as a precaution Image
Covid-19 cases in Africa via people daily Image
“Governor Mwangi Wa Iria of Murang’a asked the National Government to consider banning travel between counties saying it will be a key step in stopping the spread of the corona virus 🦠”
“The Kenya shilling dropped to its lowest level in valuation against the US dollar crossing the Ksh.105 mark on Thursday for the first time since September 29, 2015.”
“According to Standard Digital, more than 1,000 seasonal workers from various flower farms in Naivasha have already been sent home, with a likelihood of their contracts being terminated altogether”
“According to Kenya Flower Council CEO, Clement Tulezi, several flower farms have already suspended shipping of their flowers to several EU countries, even as the Dutch auction, which is the main market for Kenya’s flower exports has recorded a 50% drop in exports”
“There is no demand in Europe. Almost the entire market has collapsed. Technically, our industry is on lockdown,” adds Tulezi.

Source kenyanwallstreet.com/kenyas-flower-…
Why people in Kenya travel upcountry when shit hits the fan like now with #Covid19Kenya https://t.co/uXlkzdRaCp
Kenyan Supermarkets and other shopping areas have been directed to limit number of shoppers so that they remain compliant with social distancing guidelines with regards to coronavirus.

Only a matter of time before all businesses are under lockdown

citizentv.co.ke/news/health-cs… Image
“Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has released KSh7.4 billion to support Government's efforts to contain the spread of Coronavirus in the country.

Safaricom and KCB Group have set up a KSh30 Billion Stimulus Fund aimed at making loans and transactions cheaper” via @kenyanwalstreet
Great thread on the different groups of Biashara people affected by corona virus lockdown

These are the 60%+ who matter the most as households and voters

Kenyan Government can’t afford to fuck up this one https://t.co/3NOEtbtsvx
“Civil servants could have their salaries slashed should the Covid-19 pandemic hit crisis level

The money will then be directed to fighting the spread of the virus, specifically to create makeshift hospitals in different parts of the country” nation.co.ke/news/Workers-f…
8 NEW Confirmed cases in Kenya 🇰🇪

Total is now 15

Time to start worrying guys

https://t.co/odEWx7FFft
Kenyan government orders the closure of all bars in the country effective Sunday midnight until further notice
Kenyan Cabinet Secretary of health announces that restaurants are to remain open but only for purposes of facilitating take away services.
“government’s resolve to suspend all social gatherings in religious settings such as churches, mosques as well as funerals which are now only restricted to close family members not exceeding 15”
“All public service vehicles have also been asked to adhere to the directive issued on Friday March 20, 2020 failure to which the respective Sacco licenses will be revoked.

The Inspector General of Police has already been directed to enforce this directive”
“Mandera Residents protesting the ban of Miraa by Governor Ali Roba. The directive to ban the stimulant was reached to minimize the threat of corona virus outbreak.

Protestors chanting ‘No Miraa, No peace’. “

https://t.co/5lrbvGb5yi Image
“Smartphone sales collapse on corona virus fears”

This will impact a lot of biashara people that thrive on selling phones and electronics Image
Corona market carnage: Buyers keep off Gikomba

“The number of customers has gone down”

“A few days after the virus began spreading, stocks from China disappeared from the market, only to be replaced with those from the UK” Image
Ms Monica Mugure, another mitumba seller also said her profits had gone down drastically.

“Usually by such a time (noon) I would have sold clothes worth 2,000, but now I barely make half the amount”
“We have to persevere because we depend on what we earn here to cater for our daily needs. We must work in order to eat”

Many of the traders told the Nation they had no option but to continue working
Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui has asked the Treasury to rescue the flower industry to protect players in the sector from being wiped out of business by Covid-19 lockdown Image
“The ongoing lockdown in Europe over the corona virus has adversely affected the demand for cut flowers and vegetables”

The county produces close to 70% of Kenya’s flower exports
The industry’s value stood at 120 billion KES in 2019. May shrink to half it’s value should the current situation continue for the next 5-6 weeks

(Most definitely will)
30,000 temporary staff have been sent home by flower firms
“Machakos Governor Dr. Alfred Mutua has suspended all boda boda and tuk tuk operations in the county in a bid to curb the spread of the coronavirus”

“will exempt them from paying taxes for the remaining part of the year”

citizentv.co.ke/news/coronavir…
“Dr. Mutua has also banned market days, miraa and muguka dens as well as pool playing areas, noting that “no groupings of more than three people will allowed anywhere in Machakos County.”
Kenyan matatu commuters should brace themselves for fare hikes in new passenger rules due to Corona

“We used to pay Sh350 to Murang’a but currently they had to travel with Sh500” Image
“We don’t have any other choice but to hike fares. The cost of doing business is certainly getting higher each and every day. I can tell you for a fact that even getting passengers to fill a 14-seater vehicle is becoming difficult. Our daily customers are now working from home,”
“It has become hard for us to meet our daily targets. We are being forced to add more trips to see if we will meet our targets” David Kamau, a driver working with Eastern By Sacco said.14-seater matatus shld carry only 8 passengers while 25-seater should only carry 15 passengers.
9 more positive corona cases

Total is now 25 and I suspect there are more undiscovered positive cases

https://t.co/oIyQDHoUhp
Kiambu County Government orders the close of Wangige Market for 30 days in line with Public Health Act

That’s more traders (and support system) out of work Image
Apparently Farmers choice maker of beef-pork products sent a text to some of its farmers to hold off on deliveries https://t.co/ZNuZJ9rzLc
Running battles as traders resist closure

“There were running battles in various open air markets across the country as police implemented a Ministry of Health directive to downsize operations to com- bat Covid-19.” Image
Nakuru County has ordered the immediate closure of Nasha and Wakulima markets.

the governor’s office at Milimani, Mr. Mbui also kicked out boda boda and matatu operators from the Nakuru Central Business District.
“Other counties, including Kiambu, have closed down markets to protect their residents from the dangerous coronavirus.

In Kiambu, Gatukuyu, Kamwangi, Madarak, Jamhuri and Gakoe markets were closed indefinitely.”
Presidential fiscal directives in response to Corona Virus Image
Kenya Government suspends inmoortation of second hand - mitumba- clothes due to corona https://t.co/0O6NHPRs2t
“our government keeps telling us to stay indoors, yet we don’t have money to eat”

https://t.co/kre4dGyYyQ
Mombasa county Governor Joho announces the Emergency Household Relief & Nutrition Support Project as part of the Mombasa Economic Stimulus Program cv @sandyhoover
Thousands of commuters in Kenya stranded as Corona curfew takes effect https://t.co/XMtNUfLDy3
Chaos in Mombasa as police beat up residents, hours before Corona Curfew citizentv.co.ke/news/chaos-in-…
Serena hotel shuts doors till June 15th https://t.co/wyL2kf46YZ
Biashara Zaathirika Meru county juu ya Corona

Businesses say they might have to let go of workers due to Corona slow down https://t.co/jtKbyF5bIS
“Sales down by 80%”
Number of customers at one of Nairobi’s key Food markets is down 50% due o corona curfew

People who come to buy from such hubs are typically resellers at the last mile.

https://t.co/OcDgbCIHyN
Tough choices for households as tenants as money supply dries up https://t.co/loAw6K9haj
The National Treasury has allowed Export Processing Zones (EPZs) to sell 100% of their produce in the local market, temporarily, from restricting them to only 20% sales to cushion the industry from losses inflicted by the global COVID-19 pandemic kenyanwallstreet.com/epzs-to-sell-a…
Kenya corona confirmed cases at 50 from 0 cases a month ago

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